March 5, 2014, the State Council Premier Li Keqiang to do the government work report, for which set some of the basic goals, including GDP growth of 7.5% or so, CPI rose to control at 3.5% or so, etc., Netease Finance exclusive link to experts from all walks of life, the government work report for an all-round interpretation.

Where does reform begin?

Koo Shengchou: "Three 100 million people" is not a complete version of new urbanization

Premier Li Keqiang's urbanization path is the "3+X" path rather than the "three 100 million people" as interpreted by the media. 3 = "100 million people will settle in cities; 100 million people will be benefited from shantytown renovation and transformation of urban villages; 100 million people will be urbanized locally in central and western China. 100 million people"; X = the implementation of a residence permit system for the resident population who cannot settle down, the steady promotion of full coverage of the resident population by basic public services in cities and towns, and the sharing of modern urban civilization between the agricultural transfer population and urban residents. The 3+X path focuses on the urbanization reforms that have the greatest consensus and are the focus of the "3+X" path. The media's interpretation that "three 100 million people" is a complete version of the new urbanization path is a misinterpretation of the government work report.

According to Koo, the citizenship and urbanization of hundreds of millions of transferred people is a reform and development issue that has attracted worldwide attention. The government work report comprehensively, scientifically and systematically defines the roadmap for this major issue. The most important feature of new urbanization is its emphasis on the urbanization of people, with its core and focus on promoting the citizenship of the agricultural transfer population. Allowing the urban resident population to enjoy equal public services is the key to citizenship. In addition to the "three 100 million people" mentioned in the report (100 million people will be transferred to settle in cities, 100 million people will be transferred locally in the central and western regions, and 100 million people will be benefited from shantytown renovation and the transformation of urban villages), the report also talks about a path to provide basic public services for the foreign population without changing the household registration. Therefore, the Premier's path of urbanization is the "3+X" path rather than the media's one-sided interpretation of the "three 100 million people". The residence permit system, as an innovation in the service and management system for the urban migrant population, is the most important initiative of the "X" reform. How to make basic public services available to non-household residents? How to solve the problem of guaranteeing basic public services, such as education, employment and medical care, for the urban population who do not have the conditions to settle down or are unwilling to do so? This is the main point of the residence permit system. The residence permit system is not only conducive to improving the capacity of urban governance, but also helps to promote genuine reform of liberalization of movement and lay the foundation for the realization of the unification of urban and rural household registration.

Koo suggested that there are four different forms that can be taken to civilize hundreds of millions of agricultural transferees in towns and cities:
The first is a form of citizenship for the urban resident population that does not change their household registration, but enjoys basic public services in urban areas with a residence permit, i.e., the "X" path reform. This type of citizen enjoys basic urban public services such as children's education in the place of inflow, while retaining rural household registration. This form of citizenship is the most popular and has the highest consensus for reform. A survey shows that about 75% of rural migrant workers are unwilling to change their household registration, because 80% of them have unstable employment in the city, while the rural household registration is attached to the right to land contract, the right to use the residence base and various agricultural subsidies, which is very high in "gold content". The mentality of farmers determines that this form is the most important form of citizenship in the future. Urbanization can not only look at the household registration, with a household registration without public services can not be called citizenship.

The second is the form of citizenship in which the agricultural population changes its household registration and settles in towns and cities. These people have to give up their rural household registration and the benefits attached to the land, but can enjoy all the rights of citizens on an equal footing. It is important to wait and see the effects of this type of citizenship, because the differentiated settlement policy makes it impossible for rural migrant workers to settle in big cities, and small cities are reluctant to do so. This type of citizenship is the most risky, and should be stabilized rather than rushed or accelerated.

Thirdly, there is the form of citizenship that takes the form of local and nearby urbanization in the central and western regions. These people have already urbanized their modes of production and lifestyles, and live with their families, without the problem of "left-behind children, women and the elderly". This is the form of urbanization with the lowest social cost and the best sense of well-being. This form of urbanization is very vital in the context of the double transfer of industry and labor. Governments at all levels in the central and western regions should take advantage of the situation and act in accordance with it, and in the process of rationally undertaking the transfer of industries from the eastern coast to the central region, create a good environment for the return of outgoing laborers to start businesses and employment.

Fourthly, in the process of transforming urban villages, villagers become citizens in the form of citizenship. The transformation of urban villages can benefit both the agricultural population of urban villages and expand the supply of urban housing, and is concerned with both the improvement of the quality of urbanization and quantitative growth; this form has great potential and can be vigorously promoted.

Xu Hongcai: Reform of the fiscal and land system is a difficult bone to chew on
Premier Li Keqiang in the government work report, for which set some basic goals, including GDP growth of 7.5% or so, CPI increase control at 3.5% or so, etc., the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Minister of the Department of Information Xu Hongcai, said to Netease Finance, these basic economic growth targets with previous years is not large, indicating that the central government of the current year's economic The overall judgment of the central government on this year's economic situation.

Xu Hongcai said that the Premier mentioned "may" and "need" in the elaboration of these goals from the subjective and objective point of view, is more in the position of employment and income growth to set these goals, after all, China still has a lot of livelihood protection work to be done, the economic growth below 7.5% may increase the difficulty of accomplishing these goals. After all, China still has a lot of work to do to protect people's livelihoods, and economic growth below 7.5% may increase the difficulty of accomplishing these goals. On the other hand, although the magnitude of China's economic growth is slowing down, but it is not so low that the target of 7.5% can still be achieved, and setting it at 7.5% is conducive to a more proactive and positive approach to promoting economic development.
Xu Hongcai said, from the layout of this year's reform, this year is the first year of comprehensive reform, is the opening year, the government work report is a continuation of the spirit of last year's decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, focusing on the creation of conditions for the market to play a decisive role, and put forward a number of specific tasks and objectives, of course, specifically to see how to implement and execute.

Government work report set a lot of goals are synchronized to promote, but in Xu Hongcai's view, there are still some difficult to gnaw bones, such as fiscal and tax reform how to rationalize the relationship between the central and local, such as land system reform, etc., and the current better to do is the people's livelihood projects, decentralization and other aspects of the reduction of power, but the design of the government's self-interests are also more difficult to adjust the government is not necessarily able to deal with, for example, the institutional reforms, actually For example, institutional reform, which is actually the government's reform of its own life, is facing a lot of difficulties, and needs to be supported by the compensation mechanism, and so on.

Zhu Ning: Financial Reform Needs to Serve Real Economy and Urbanization
Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the government report meeting that the financial system reform should be deepened in 2014. Continue to promote the marketization of interest rates and expand the independent pricing power of interest rates of financial institutions. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level, expand the two-way floating band of the exchange rate, and promote the convertibility of the RMB capital account. Steadily promote the establishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions initiated by private capital, and guide private capital to participate in and invest in financial institutions and financing intermediary service organizations.

In this regard, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, vice president of Zhu Ning said, from the government report can be seen, the future reform of the financial system and the past period of time the financial system reform will be the same. Among the financial system reform there are the following aspects to focus on.

The first is the further promotion of interest rate marketization. Zhu Ning believes that the People's Bank of China in the Shanghai free trade zone of small foreign currency deposit interest rates have been liberalized, the next step also depends on the RMB small deposit interest rates can be completely liberalized. And this is closely related to the banking reform reform and banking system regulation.

The second direction of reform is the reform of the exchange rate, especially under the capital account. At present, China is by and large a closed economy, how to open up the capital account to the outside world, so that capital can flow freely under the capital account will be the direction of reform, which has two main elements, one is the RMB as an internationalized currency, playing a more important role in international clearing and international investment, one of the important prerequisites is the exchange rate marketization. The other is the exchange rate marketization, so that China's financial system and the global financial system to achieve a better docking, can let the capital item free flow, that is, China's capital can be under the capital item, by means of investment flows to the international market, rather than using the current foreign exchange bureau of this approval method.

The third direction is the development of China's multi-level capital market. Capital market development for 20 years, is still mainly stock market, and resource allocation there are certain distortions and risks, the future, whether it is the development of the new three boards, the bond market, or will be the existing issuance system from the approval system to the filing system or the registration system, these are also regulators have been trying to promote the direction.

Zhu Ning said that in addition to the above three points, there are two hotspots of financial reform worth paying attention to, one of which is the financial reform to better serve the real economy, for example, the balance of treasure, Internet finance and small loan companies are very good attempts.

Secondly, financial reform can also better serve urbanization, with financial institutions providing better financial products and services on the one hand, and reforming the existing fiscal and taxation system on the other. Local government financing platforms and debts need to be made more transparent, which is also a way of coordinating local economic development to strike a balance between short-term impediments to development and the quality of long-term sustainable development, allowing for a transformation of the economic growth model.

Zhao Xijun: Reform goals harder than economic growth goals
Li Keqiang emphasized in the government work report: in 2014, the economic growth target is around 7.5%, and the consumer price increase rate is controlled at 3.5%; further deepen the reform of the economic system, and continue to decentralize the administrative examination and approval of more than 200 people.

In this regard, Netease Finance linked to the People's University of China Institute of Finance and Securities, deputy director of Zhao Xijun, Zhao Xijun that the new leader took office, after a year last year, this year's economic development and reform goals are obviously more comprehensive consideration of all aspects of the factors. He believes that Li Keqiang put forward various economic goals, very sure to achieve.

The main reason is that, on the one hand, with the experience gained in the past year after the change of government, there is a clearer direction in economic development. On the other hand, the global economic environment this year is better than in previous years, which is conducive to boosting China's export growth.

Li Keqiang also put forward this year's reform goals in the report, clearly stating that this year the administrative approval should continue to decentralize more than 200. Zhao Xijun believes that the report reflects a great determination to reform. But at the same time, he also pointed out that this year is the first year of the comprehensive deepening of reform, the difficulty of achieving the reform goal is greater than that of achieving economic growth targets.

Because the reform has reached a deep water zone, focusing on the reform of the economic system, which is the most difficult aspect to overcome. The key to reform there are two points, first, the current power of the main body to "break their wrists", will be decentralized to the market; Second, market players in the receipt of power, can not be required to achieve, there is no previous experience, which requires the improvement of the market legal and regulatory system. Reform must be broken and established. (Fang Haiping)

Liu Fuyuan: the main contradiction in the domestic demand should be strictly controlled local debt
This year's government work report put forward the 2014 economic growth target of about 7.5%, M2 growth target of about 13%, and the 2014 inflation target of about 3.5%.

Liu Fuyuan said, 7.5% target from the end of last year began to discuss, but this is not the goal. Government work report put this as the goal or not get rid of the "growth as development" concept. He believes that the focus is to grasp the development, grasp a good look back at the GDP, may also be higher than 7.5%.

Liu Fuyuan pointed out that the main contradiction this year is the lack of domestic demand, but also rely on external demand. Two days ago, the sudden devaluation of the yuan is to take care of exports, to combat hot money is just a statement. In this issue, we must start the domestic demand, so that people have money to spend, the biggest potential in the migrant workers. Now still engaged in new urbanization, or urbanization as urban construction, the effect is not good. Now, although the GDP is declining, the employment rate has not declined, and there is also a shortage of migrant workers. Under such circumstances, even if the GDP is lower, it is not a bad thing, and the overall situation of development is quite good now.

Monetary policy, Liu Fuyuan that the deposit rate in accordance with international standards is 8% to 10%, but our country is now close to 20%. now the nominal interest rate is not high, but the real interest rate is high, the small and medium-sized enterprises is very unfavorable. This year's monetary policy should be appropriate to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, should be made to actually get the hands of the loan interest rate reduction, to help the real economy development. Liu Fuyuan also said that monetary policy should be adapted to market requirements, relaxation of liquidity, "CPI a rise is equal to inflation" is actually the wrong idea. Now the CPI fell, GDP fell. 2% CPI forecast for February, PPI is -1.9%. In fact, CPI less than 4% or 5%, PPI can not turn positive. He believes that it is now best for the central government to give subsidies to protect low-income people and seek overall development. Exchange rate, Liu Fuyuan said that the general trend of the future exchange rate or rise, although the exchange rate suddenly fell some time ago, but in the case of increased imports, the yuan should not be devalued.

This year's government work report also proposed "to local government debt income and expenditure classification into budget management" and "issued by the Ministry of Finance or continue to pilot local governments to make up for their own debt issuance of local financial income". Liu Fuyuan said that the unified road is a good desire, but once the local issue is allowed, there will be a problem, now should only be able to pay for the amount of money, can no longer borrow local debt. China's financial disk is very large, local or lack of money, the key is the tax system problem is not solved, the financial package system must be adjusted, more than 20 years. He believes that we should prohibit borrowing, do not allow officials to promote with the debt, it is not possible to internal write-off, but not allowed to borrow in the future. (Zeng Jinqiu Huang Huimin)

Lin Qiaoji: Reform of SOEs in traditionally polluting industries still takes time
Li Keqiang put forward in the government work report, this year's economic growth target of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, M2 growth target of about 13%.
Lin Qiaoji, co-director of the research department of Agricultural Bank of China International Securities, said that the main economic data released by the central government is similar to market expectations. Among the highlights, the main focus on consumption-driven economic growth, the willingness to reform is to tend to consumer-based economic system; investment in emerging industries will be strengthened, such as Internet consumption, showing that emerging industries will drive China's economic transformation, coupled with consumption-driven, it is believed that China's economy will grow steadily.

In addition, the report also emphasized the importance of environmental protection many times, Lin Qiaoji believes that many traditional industries will face greater challenges, including coal and power generation industries, etc., because they will be under greater pressure to protect the environment, he said, "The central government wants to use more clean renewable energy, clean energy, and how to do a good job of protecting the environment and at the same time do a good job of growing in these industries, that's a big challenge."

As for the reform of state-owned enterprises, Lin Qiaoji believes that the general direction is correct and is expected to improve the competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, and some state-owned enterprises have already introduced private capital, but he believes that the management modes of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are different, and it will still take a long time for both sides to integrate in the process.

Wang Xiaoguang: Reform Ideas Run Through 2014 Government Work
Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that reform is the top priority of the government's work this year. The main expected goals include: GDP growth of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, more than 10 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the urban registered unemployment rate controlled at less than 4.6%.

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Department of Decision-Making and Consulting of the National School of Administration, said he was impressed by the report's comprehensiveness in terms of goals. "Not only are there hard targets such as GDP and CPI, but there are also targets on ecology, environmental protection and culture," Wang said. "On top of poverty eradication, the report re-emphasizes the issue of environmental pollution. In addition, in terms of urbanization, the report proposes to solve the "three hundred million" problems, that is, to promote about 100 million people to settle in cities and towns, to renovate urban shantytowns and villages where about 100 million people live, and to guide about 100 million people to urbanize in the central and western regions, which is a very practical problem." On the cultural front, Wang Xiaoguang said the phrase "advocating reading for all", which had not appeared in previous government work reports, was also new.

In addition, Wang Xiaoguang believes that the definition of "development" in this government report is the best one so far. "Improving quality and efficiency, promoting transformation and upgrading, and improving people's lives, this definition is very comprehensive," said Wang Xiaoguang, "In the past, we often mention the three shifts, and this time the four shifts, in fact, is the idea of reform throughout all aspects of the government's work, and it is to stimulate economic vitality by means of reform. economic vitality."

The above four shifts, namely: promoting development from relying mainly on factor inputs to relying more on innovation-driven transformation, converting from relying mainly on traditional comparative advantages to giving more play to comprehensive competitive advantages, upgrading from the middle-low end of the international industrial division of labor to the middle-high end, and moving from urban-rural-regional imbalance to balanced coordination."

Tanya Ling: the central work is focused on industry Difficulty is industrial transformation
Li Keqiang said in the government's work report that the main expected goals for economic and social development this year are: GDP growth of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, more than 10 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the urban registered unemployment rate is controlled at less than 4.6%.

Tan Yaling, executive director of the China Institute of International Economic Relations, said that this year's report is very simple, less a lot of adjectives, highlighting the focus, that is, this year's work tasks, the review of previous years to do very little, the central government this year's goal is very clear, that is, industry-based, financial aspects of the focus on the variety of services and tools, avoiding a lot of hotspot speculation and attention, so that you can absorb the market with the pacification of the emotions. From a long-term and comprehensive perspective, do something practical and effective.

Tanya Ling said that the indicators for the CDP target have been defined in terms of stabilizing growth, which is a choice of some indicators made after two years of groping. Very good definitions have been made in terms of inflation, money supply and employment indicators, leaving ample room for maneuver, such as the inflation indicator, which leaves a very large margin. We should see the complexity of the world economy this year, so revisions to the indicators will occur in the future, and our indicators should not be formatted; indicators such as those of the advanced economies will be revised throughout the year in the light of events and market conditions, and we should also adapt to changes in the market, and follow up, adjust, and revise them in accordance with the benchmark's objectives.

At the same time, the work report also puts forward, as long as the economy is running in a reasonable range, we will focus on seizing the transformation and restructuring without relaxing. Tan Yaling believes that this is where the difficulties in this year's economic work, now many companies are just changing production rather than transformation, such as the original do steel, and now do financial, which is called change of production. Transformation should be in the industry itself, the form of upgrading, the past is to do low-end, and now to do intermediate, or to do high-level.

Tanya Ling pointed out that this year's work report particularly emphasized that our transformation, which should be of high quality and high quality, so a word was used - "innovative country", which must have its own creativity and value, which is called a successful transformation.

The report suggests that the proportion of added value of the service industry reached 46.1% last year, exceeding the secondary industry for the first time. Tan Yaling said, this is not necessarily a good data, at present China's primary and secondary industries are very serious mismatch, the primary industry is not enough, the secondary industry is going very fast, the tertiary industry, if it crosses over the secondary industry, not quite suitable for China, China has not yet reached the age of the service industry is mainly, the foundation of our industry and agriculture is very weak, there is no quality, the value has not been reflected, at this time, to focus on the The development of the service industry is not very suitable.

Liu Shengjun: Mixed ownership reform should focus on governance structure

Li Keqiang's government work report proposed to enhance the vitality of all types of ownership of the economy. The development of non-state capital to participate in the central enterprise investment projects, in the financial, petroleum, electric power, railroads, telecommunications, resource development, public utilities and other areas, to non-state capital to launch a number of investment projects. It will formulate specific measures for non-publicly owned enterprises to enter the field of franchising. The reform of the railroad investment and financing system will be implemented, and competitive businesses will be liberalized in more areas, providing an arena for private capital to make its mark.

Liu Shengjun, executive vice president of the China-EU Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, said bluntly that the mixed ownership reform, the central state-owned enterprises, large-scale, private enterprises to participate in the difficult, and involves sensitive areas such as ideology, in the short term, or difficult to have a big breakthrough; breakthroughs or placed in the local state-owned enterprises, because the scale of the smaller, private enterprises are easy to enter.

He also emphasized that the most important thing about mixed ownership is to change the governance structure, because mixed ownership without mechanism change is meaningless.

Liu Shengjun: Reducing enterprise investment and financing approval authority contains a high amount of gold
Li Keqiang's government work report mentions the in-depth promotion of administrative system reform. Further simplify and decentralize government, and more than 200 additional administrative approvals should be abolished and decentralized this year.

The report proposes to fully implement the autonomy of enterprise investment and promote the facilitation of investment and entrepreneurship. It is necessary to set up administrative approval matters, to establish a power list system, all open to the public, outside the list, shall not be implemented for approval. Comprehensively clean up non-administrative approval matters.

Liu Shengjun, executive vice president of the China-EU Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, pointed out in this regard, decentralization and reduction of approvals does not lie in the reduction of how many approvals, but rather to look at the reduction of approvals of the gold, "if it is the gold content of the approval of the right is not very high, there is no great significance." He said, for example, on the enterprise investment, financing, the approval of this piece of reduction, the gold content is high.

Where do risks to the financial system arise?

Zhu Baoliang: The first time the term "regional" financial risk has appeared
Li Keqiang government work report shows that the main expected goals for this year are: GDP growth of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, more than 10 million new jobs in towns and cities, and the urban and rural registered unemployment rate is controlled at 4.6% or less.

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, said that the GDP growth rate of 7.5% had already achieved consensus in the previous economic work conference, and the CPI control at 3.5% was also a solid expectation. Compared to last year, the unemployment rate is more demanding, and more than 10 million new jobs is a relatively large task.

At the same time, the report also proposes to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. This year, it is proposed to arrange a fiscal deficit of 1,350 billion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan over the previous year, of which the central fiscal deficit of 950 billion yuan, by the central government on behalf of the local debt issuance of 400 billion yuan. This year's broad money M2 is expected to grow 13% or so.

Zhu Baoliang believes that the financial and broad money M2 is expected to be relatively robust, of course, the growth rate of M2 may also be adjusted according to the specific economic operation. Zhu Baoliang pointed out that in this government work report, the expression about preventing financial risks is worth paying attention to. "Previously, the PBoC's reference was to 'systemic' risks, but this report also mentions the concept of 'regional' risks at the same time, there are some changes, which can be seen that the government attaches great importance to financial risks, and can also be seen in the central government's determination to stabilize growth. growth determination."

Lianping: Internet finance policy may be introduced soon
Li Keqiang's government work report pointed out that reform is the top priority of the government's work this year. The main expected goals include: GDP growth of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, more than 10 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the urban registered unemployment rate controlled at less than 4.6%.

In addition, Li Keqiang said that this year to deepen the reform of the financial system. Continue to promote the marketization of interest rates, and expand the independent pricing power of interest rates of financial institutions. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level, expand the two-way floating band of the exchange rate, and promote the convertibility of the RMB capital account.

The report states that it will steadily promote the establishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions initiated by private capital, and guide private capital to participate in and invest in financial institutions and financing intermediary service organizations. A deposit insurance system will be established, and a sound risk disposal mechanism for financial institutions will be developed. Reform of policy-oriented financial institutions will be implemented. Accelerate the development of the multi-level capital market, promote the reform of the registration system for stock issuance, and standardize the development of the bond market. Actively develop agricultural insurance and explore the establishment of a catastrophe insurance system.

"Promote the healthy development of Internet finance, improve the coordination mechanism for financial supervision, closely monitor cross-border capital flows, and guard the bottom line of no systemic and regional financial risks. Let finance become a pool of living water to better water the trees of the real economy, such as small and micro enterprises and the "three rural areas"."

For the first time Internet finance was included in the government work report, Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping said, indicating that the government attaches great importance to Internet finance, innovation and revitalization of the financial combined in a piece of innovation and openness of the banking system to promote the affirmative, but in the direction of regulation must be healthy, non-healthy development is not allowed.

" The next relevant policy system, regulations may be introduced soon, the development of Internet finance in a disciplined market environment is good for all levels."

For the target of M2, he said it is in the expected, more in line with the current economic performance, from the point of view of the various other indicators, GDP and CPI and last year's consistency, growth and price targets in general consistency of the situation, it is unlikely that there will be too much change.

"It would also be inappropriate to go lower, the economy needs monetary support to operate, if it is set higher than 14% and does not meet the needs of the medium and long term, due to the relatively large stock of money, leverage is relatively high, we can see that now the corporate liabilities are relatively high, shadow banking, platform debt and so on all need a sound monetary policy."

Lian Ping pointed out that it feels like 13% is a bit of a downside, and the actual situation may be higher than 13%, now that the financing structure has changed, coupled with the tightening of the currency last year, and thus ended up running between 13 and 14 percent. (Hu Wen)

He Zhicheng: Financial reform should not be a green light for financial chaos
Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report that deepening the reform of the financial system. Continue to promote the marketization of interest rates, and expand the independent pricing power of interest rates of financial institutions. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level, expand the two-way floating band of the exchange rate, and promote the convertibility of the RMB capital account. Steadily promote the establishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions initiated by private capital, and guide private capital to participate in and invest in financial institutions and financing intermediary service organizations.

The report also mentions the establishment of a deposit insurance system and the improvement of risk disposal mechanisms for financial institutions. Reform of policy-oriented financial institutions will be implemented. Accelerating the development of the multi-level capital market, promoting the reform of the registration system for stock issuance, and standardizing the development of the bond market. Actively develop agricultural insurance and explore the establishment of a catastrophe insurance system. It will promote the healthy development of Internet finance, improve the coordination mechanism for financial supervision, closely monitor cross-border capital flows, and guard the bottom line against systemic and regional financial risks.

He Zhicheng, senior economist at the head office of the Agricultural Bank of China, said in this regard, the marketization of interest rates, private banks and other financial reforms have been put forward for a long time, and it is expected that this year there will be further action on private banks.

He Zhicheng bluntly said that financial reform is easy to be misinterpreted, "Who is to blame for the emergence of the balance? Is to blame the financial market chaos, if there is no bank borrowing short put long chaos, interest rates will not be so high." He suggested that financial reform should not be combined with financial chaos, and should not let the financial market reform become a green light for financial chaos. (Liu Baoxing)

Liao Qun: Financial Reform Measures Only Shadow Banks Get Little Coverage
Li Keqiang in the government work report put forward this year's economic growth target of 7.5% or so, consumer price increases controlled at 3.5% or so, M2 growth target of 13% or so, also mentioned a number of deepening financial reform measures.

Liao Qun, international chief economist of CITIC Bank, said that the biggest challenge to the future growth of China's economy lies in the contradiction between the adjustment of the economic structure and the stabilization of economic growth, and this year's economic growth target is set at about 7.5%, and the market is expected to be similar to the central government believes that a certain amount of high-speed economic growth is still quite necessary.

In addition, Li also proposed a number of measures to deepen financial reform, including expanding the two-way floating band of the exchange rate, advancing the convertibility of the yuan's capital account, and standardizing and improving the mechanism for dealing with the risks of financial institutions. Liao believes that although the report proposes to standardize the risk management mechanism of financial institutions, there is almost no ink on how to deal with the issue of shadow banking, and he estimates that the government is still considering how to solve the complex problems of shadow banking in a comprehensive manner.

Liao Qun added that many of the reform measures proposed in the report are stated in principle, and it is still necessary to wait for specific timetables and practices for policy implementation. But he expects that measures such as expanding the yuan's appreciation, promoting the development of private banks and regulating Internet finance will be realized in the short term. (Liu Wentao)

Liu Shengjun: Report mentions Internet finance means recognition
Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report that deepening the reform of the financial system. Promote the healthy development of Internet finance, improve the coordination mechanism for financial supervision, closely monitor cross-border capital flows, and guard the bottom line of no systemic and regional financial risks.

Liu Shengjun, executive vice president of China Europe Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, said in this regard, Internet finance appears in the government's work report is a highlight, indicating that the government's recognition of Internet finance, and the recent emergence of "outlawing the balance of the treasure" voice is expected to be reduced.

He added that this also means that the government will give new regulation to Internet finance, which is good for the healthy development of the Internet finance industry.

Will the currency tighten?

Zhao Qingming: this year's monetary policy will be looser than last year's
Li Keqiang's government work report mentioned that last year successfully resolved the risk of a hard landing without stimulating or overissuing money.

In the first half of last year, exports fluctuated sharply, the economy continued its downward trend, central government revenues were once in a negative growth rate rarely seen in many years, and interbank interest rates were once abnormally high, and there were voices in the international arena suggesting that China's economy might have a "hard landing". In response to this situation, the Government has persisted in implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, refraining from taking short-term stimulus measures, expanding deficits, or over-issuing money, but rather increasing effective supply, releasing potential demand, and responding calmly to short-term fluctuations in the market, so as to ensure that the economy does not slip out of its reasonable range.

For this year's monetary policy forecast, Zhao Qingming believes that this year's policy direction will keep a close eye on the liquidity risk, last June, "money tight" the possibility of recurrence is zero. He believes that this year's monetary policy should be looser than last year.

For the first time Internet finance was written into the government work report, Zhao Qingming believes that Internet finance will be further standardized, this year or will introduce some relevant methods to control and regulate.

Cao Jianhai: M2 target signals actual loose monetary policy this year
This year's government work report puts forward some key targets for economic growth throughout the year, such as the M2 growth target of 13% or so, to which Cao Jianhai, director of the Investment and Market Research Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that this target signals that this year is actually still loose monetary policy, and the future will continue to push up inflation.

Previously, there is a view that this year's government work report may dilute the setting of specific data targets such as GDP growth to promote the structural transformation of the economy, but this speculation did not come true. Cao Jianhai told Netease Finance that from the government work report, GDP is still the ultimate economic development goal, and in terms of the annual situation, maintaining growth and stabilizing inflation is still the focus.

However, according to Cao Jianhai, the problem is the distortionary nature of the CPI data, and the target of around 3.5% does not reflect the true level of inflation. He pointed out that the gap between the M2 growth rate and the GDP growth rate is more reflective of the real level of inflation. For example, in 2009 the real inflation had reached about 18%, but the official statistics were only negative 0.7%.

Cao Jianhai said, from the specific M2 growth target, this year is still set too high, last year the actual completion of the 14%-15% or so has been exceeded, this year is estimated to be still exceeded by one or two points, which predicts that this year's actual still loose monetary policy, is expansionary policy, the so-called future will lead to prices continue to rise, the manufacturing sector of the real economy is difficult to improve the difficulties, and the financial Bubble investment speculation will continue to have room to survive. Cao Jianhai believes that the correct approach should be to gradually reduce the M2 to 12%, and in the future reduce it to a level similar to the real GDP growth rate can be. (Zhai Ruimin)

Is the economy in recession?

Liu Yuanchun: Downward pressure on the economy is greater but the foundation for growth is still there
In his government work report, Li Keqiang emphasized that "the economic growth target for 2014 is around 7.5%, the M2 growth target is around 13%, and the consumer price increase in 2014 is controlled at around 3.5%."

Liu Yuanchun, executive director of the National Institute for Strategy and Development at Renmin University of China, said the highlight of the Premier's government work report is that it clearly defines and speaks about this year's macroeconomic situation and reinforces the concepts of people's livelihoods and ecology, while the main line of reform runs through all fields.

In this regard, Liu Yuanchun believes that, despite the current downward pressure on China's economy is relatively large, but the foundation of China's own growth still exists, to determine such a goal, the possibility of achieving is very large.

"The basis of this year's maximum growth one is the expansion of external demand brought about by the improvement of the economies of developed countries; the second is the income distribution reforms brought about by the growth of residents' incomes will change the state of last year's consumption downturn, so that the consumption of the return to a normal and stable range, which is China can be stabilized in the 7.51 TP3T very important two factors."

CPI, he pointed out that due to the overall overcapacity has not been fully resolved, Ono a total demand perspective, the upward pressure on prices is not great. As for currency issuance, this year's monetary growth program than the previous fallback, although the previous inertia pressure, but the new money this piece do not have to worry too much, but need to pay attention to is due to price reform, the new price factors are bound to exist, while there are still some uncertainty factors. (Hu Wen)

Lu Zhengwei: Local government debt may affect economic growth

In his government work report, Li Keqiang emphasized that "the economic growth target for 2014 is around 7.5%, the M2 growth target is around 13%, and the consumer price increase in 2014 is controlled at around 3.5%."

In this regard, Societe Generale chief economist Lu Zhengwei said that this year is still mainly to stabilize the main, from the point of view of several target data and the same as last year, despite the expansion of the level of fiscal deficit implementation, but back to the budget level compared to the level of the same, and there is no big change.

He pointed out that to achieve this year's economic growth target, local liabilities is one of the obstacles, "local liabilities and stabilize growth between a contradiction, this year's economy has a downward pressure, then the need to do investment, and investment is divided into private investment and government investment, if the private investment does not have a big improvement, we have to continue to rely on the government's investment, and here it will involve how to control the local The problem of government indebtedness."

According to Lu Zhengwei, stimulating private investment will face challenges in several areas: first, the level of interest rates last year still has lagging effects, and second, the exchange rate is still high. In terms of reform, although the Premier feels that there has been a significant expansion from the perspective of business registration, the progress of conducting business in substance has not been very fast.

Zhao Qingming: this year to achieve GDP growth of 7.5% harder than last year
Li Keqiang made a government work report mentioned that "the 2014 economic growth target is about 7.5%, the M2 growth target is about 13%, and the increase in consumer prices in 2014 is controlled at about 3.5%."

Adjunct Professor Zhao Qingming, School of Finance, University of International Business and Economics, said that this year's GDP target will not necessarily adhere to the standard of not less than 7.5%, this year's "7.5%" will be more flexible, more anticipatory goals.

The government work report also mentioned that China's economy is under greater downward pressure and will fine-tune its policies in due course. Zhao Qingming pointed out that the current foreign situation, although the United States and Europe's situation is better than last year, but still not too optimistic, there is still uncertainty in Japan, while the emerging markets are generally not optimistic; Domestic, can not find a new point of economic growth, in addition to the current volume of the economy has been very large, while the growth of investment in the entity has slowed down, there is not a lot of investment can be invested in the consumer side can not find a new hotspot of consumption. Zhao Qingming believes that, from the domestic and international situation, this year to achieve the goal of GDP 7.5% is more difficult than last year's 7.5%.

Li Daxiao: the report is objective and clear to dispel a number of market doubts 

Li Keqiang in the Li Keqiang government work report, summarized the national economic operation and social development in 2013 after the 2014 economic and social development of a number of goals, GDP growth target of 7.5%, CPI growth control at 3.5%.

Li Daxiao of Yingda Securities said that Li Keqiang's first working report is generally objective and clear, and the target is set neutrally, taking into account the factors of resources and structural adjustment, as well as operability. On some key issues, the statement is clear, dispelling many of the market's doubts.

These key issues include, in terms of real estate, or the caliber of healthy and stable development, did not exceed market expectations, put forward radical policies; in terms of Internet finance, the statement is that the stable and healthy development of Internet finance on the basis of financial regulation, will not be like the market speculation will be outlawed.

In addition, Li Daxiao also pointed out that there are several new references in the report worth paying attention to, non-public property rights are sacred and inviolable is a major benefit; and in the new urbanization, three 100 million is also a new reference to promote about 100 million agricultural transfer population to settle in cities and towns, transformation of urban shanty towns and villages where about 100 million people live, and guiding about 100 million people in the western and central regions close to the urbanization.

In terms of information consumption, the paid leave system will be further promoted this year to boost consumption; in terms of exports, more emphasis will be placed on trade balance and export upgrading will be promoted, with a preference for railroad exports and nuclear power exports.

Lin Caiyi: 7.5% growth target is more "false" structural adjustment is a hard target

Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report that the main expected goals for economic and social development this year are: GDP growth of about 7.5%, consumer price increases controlled at about 3.5%, more than 10 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the urban registered unemployment rate controlled at 4.6%.
Guotai Junan chief economist Lin Caiyi analyzed this, the national economy 7.5% indicators are more in the motive of encouraging confidence, while the main hard indicators are 3.5% inflation indicators and 4.6% employment indicators, economic growth is the "virtual", the reform for the "real". Economic growth is "false" and reform is "real". In Lin Caiyi's view, it is optimistic to realize the employment indicator, but the inflation indicator is under great pressure.

According to Lin Caiyi, the overall framework of the government's work report is to find a balance between growth and transformation, that is, to deal with the relationship between growth, employment and prices. In this relationship, the bottom line is employment, the upper limit is inflation, the government to seek a kind of growth in this range.

She believes that next year's economic growth target of 7.5 more "false", "the reason for this judgment is mainly based on the report mentioned two data, steel production capacity to remove 27 million tons, there is a cement to remove 42 million tons, why the government report to go to the production capacity of the Why should the government report on the scale of capacity reduction so specific? And it talks about the serious problem of overcapacity." Lin Caiyi said, this shows that on the basis of being able to preserve employment, structural adjustment is actually a hard target, which is very important to see.

Lin Caiyi judgment, this year to go to production capacity will be a more severe process, the growth of environmental issues brought about by a very important agenda, next year's environmental protection will also be the top priority, in the go to production capacity and to ensure that the quality of the environment below, the manufacturing sector will further slow down, if the government does not take the investment or relaxation policy to stimulate the words of the economy, economic growth of 7.51 TP3T is a very false target.

"Among the two hard indicators of inflation and employment, the employment target is easier to achieve." Lin Caiyi analyzed that because the current labor supply is not growing as fast as the demand for labor, since last year, the tertiary service sector has accounted for 46.1% in the national economy, in which case the tertiary sector absorbs labor more intensively than the secondary sector.

But achieving the 3.5% inflation target is under great pressure and faces many difficulties. According to Lin Caiyi, labor costs will also rise this year, which will further lead to higher service prices, higher production costs, and public product prices will also face an upward trend. Therefore, it will also bring price pressure on the reform of monopoly markets such as railroads and electricity. In addition, the exchange rate depreciation led to rising import costs, China's foreign trade dependence rate currently reached 51%, if the cost of imports rose, the impact of domestic commodity price factors is also quite large.

In terms of reform indicators, Lin Caiyi believes that decentralization and the disclosure of public funds are also two more important points of interest. These two measures are solving the problem of public power constraints, public power constraints are solved, the efficiency of the government and the efficiency of public resource utilization will be improved, in this case, the productivity of the whole society will be increased, which is an important performance to the reform to ask for dividends.

Will the housing market crash?

Zhang Haiqing: monetary policy tightening unfavorable real estate market will not collapse
Li Keqiang's government work report emphasized that "the economic growth target for 2014 is around 7.5%, the M2 growth target is around 13%, and the increase in consumer prices in 2014 is controlled at around 3.5%."

This year's government report on the real estate industry, pointed out that in 2013 to start the launch of the unified registration of real estate, focusing on the investment in the security of housing projects and so on. And this year, monetary policy should be kept moderately loose and tight, to innovate policy housing investment and financing mechanisms and tools, to take the market-oriented operation.

In particular, the report points out the need to categorize and regulate the situation in different cities, increase the supply of small and medium-sized commercial housing and shared ownership housing, and curb speculative and investment demand.

Zhang Haiqing, research director of the research center of the Centaline Group, said that from the data, this year's monetary policy to maintain a moderately loose and tight, the real estate market may belong to the adverse factors. 2013 is a sound monetary policy, this year may be slightly tighter. Although some time ago the bank loan suspension rumors proved to be false, but in fact the bank in the mortgage is tightened, the first set of mortgage loans back to the benchmark or upward, so this year the monetary policy is an unfavorable influence factors. From past experience, once the monetary easing, the market is more active, and in turn the market is worse.

Zhang Haiqing believes that the property tax has been a hotly debated topic, this year's report involves real estate is mainly real estate legislation and real estate registration. Overall, the policy has not exceeded everyone's expectations, in the short term, favorable and unfavorable. But there is a point, the property tax is definitely going to be levied.

The government work report also put forward "stabilize growth, maintain employment", Zhang Haiqing said, can predict that the real estate market will not be a large-scale stoppage, because to create new jobs 10 million, the market may not appear in the previous period of the crash.

For the report put forward by the "State Council agreed by the Ministry of Finance agency issue or continue to pilot by the local government to issue their own debt to make up for the local financial revenue." Zhang Haiqing believes that the local debt involves a larger amount of real estate, once the central government to strengthen the supervision of finance, local financing will certainly be affected.

Zhang Haiqing also said that some trust-like products are now planned as financial products, but in fact they are related to real estate. These products through real estate investment, made by the financial management company into products to sell, but it is not subject to the supervision of the trust. Because the trust is now more strict control, but the financial products are not so strict, this year may increase the management efforts, the financing will have an impact.

Yang Hongxu: control is still tight in the second half of the year, some cities or relaxation
In relation to the real estate industry, Li Keqiang said in the report that in 2013, the launch of the launch of the unified registration of real estate, focusing on the investment in the protection of housing projects and so on.

The report pointed out that in 2014, monetary policy should be kept moderately loose and tight, and that policy housing investment and financing mechanisms and tools should be innovated, with a market-oriented operation approach. It also specifically pointed out the need to categorize and regulate the situation in different cities, increase the supply of small and medium-sized commercial housing and shared property rights housing, and curb speculative investment demand.

Yang Hongxu, vice president of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that this year, for different cities to classify regulation and control, the first and second-tier city regulation and control is still tight, and is expected to relax in the second half of the year in some cities or; not to release the investment demand for the time being. The current government put forward to protect housing goals and tasks is very clear, shantytown renovation is still the focus of the protection of housing, it is expected that in the next few years the second and third tier cities will be the main battlefield of shantytown reform, old reform.

He believes that increasing the proportion of guaranteed housing in big cities is something with novelty, and through public rental housing, it also benefits migrant workers, while public and low-cost rents are in line with each other, which has little impact on the public.

Yang Hongxu said that the report put forward by the innovation of policy housing investment and financing mechanisms and tools, this is mainly referred to on behalf of the protection of housing investment to provide financing facilities, the government is more concerned about financing the construction of housing. For example, the issuance of bonds, trusts, platform loans and so on. Previously hotly debated financing reforms related to individual home purchases were not mentioned.

For real estate regulation, Yang Hongxu believes that the inhibition of speculative investment demand, frequently mentioned by the official in the past, also means that the temporary will not release the speculative investment demand regulation, restriction of purchases and loans at least this year will not be fully withdrawn.

He believes that this year, for different cities categorized control, that is, housing prices rose large first-tier and a few second-tier cities, control is still tight. For supply exceeds demand, home prices rose small third and fourth tier and some second-tier cities, maintain the status quo. For serious oversupply, house prices stop rising or falling, can moderately relax the policy. It is estimated that in the second half of the year, should be able to see some cities to relax regulation. (Zhu Ling)

Ho Chi-shing: Government raises tolerance for higher house prices
The second session of the twelfth National People's Congress opened today, Li Keqiang made a government work report. Li Keqiang mentioned in the report, this year's economic and social development of the main expected goal is: GDP growth of 7.5% or so, consumer price increases controlled at 3.5% or so.

He Zhicheng, senior economist at the head office of the Agricultural Bank of China, said in this regard, the economic growth rate at 7.5%, CPI at 3.5%, "this figure is lower than last year, higher than the expectations of the 'short China' theorists", which is the future growth rate of economic operation Gave the expectation of faster growth, "stabilizing expectations is the biggest highlight of the work report", indicating that the economy will not have big problems.

He Zhicheng also pointed out that the government released the expectations of faster economic growth, can play a role in stabilizing the market expectations of real estate, "now stable expectations are very important", "shows that the government has increased the tolerance of higher prices, the government will not introduce a crackdown on real estate policy is expected to stabilize house prices ".

He said that one way to stabilize economic growth is to stabilize expectations, and the other is to speed up reforms, and that the growth brought about by reforms is the real growth, which is also positively expressed in the report by "letting all the people share the fruits of reform and development". He also pointed out that reform is good for long-term development, short-term or rebound. (Liu Baoxing)

Tongce Zhang Hongwei: Real Estate Market Fundamentals Will Continue to Rebound

Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report that China's GDP grew by about 7.5% in 2014, broad money M2 is expected to grow by about 13% this year, and the increase in consumer prices is controlled at about 3.5%. At the same time, the importance of the work of guaranteed housing was mentioned again.

In this regard, the same policy consulting director of the research department Zhang Hongwei that, from the current government statement and market fundamentals trend, the real estate market investment to pull the macro-economic role of the steady rise will continue to play in the macro-economic structural reforms have not yet been completed, the real estate will still be presented in the "transitional economy" market characteristics, market fundamentals will continue to rebound, which will drive the overall market turnover continues to improve and prices continue to rise. Market fundamentals will continue to rebound, which will drive the overall market turnover continues to improve and prices continue to rise.

Zhang Hongwei said, to the second quarter or even the second half of the year, if there is no change in the policy side, in the policy timeliness tends to weaken, the market fundamentals are warming up again, inflation expectations continue to increase in the market background, it may be very difficult to reappear in the phenomenon of "parity", house prices will continue to rise on such a channel.

In response to the changes that occurred in the market at the beginning of 2014, Zhang Hongwei believes that the "two sessions" during the official performance is relatively neutral, which is inextricably linked to the macroeconomic "bottoming out" stage characteristics. According to the current official statement and past historical experience, in the macro-economic has not yet improved significantly when the real estate market investment to pull the macro-economic role of the steady rise will continue to play, therefore, in the "two-way regulation and control" classified guidance control ideas guiding, as long as the market and housing prices do not appear in 2014 retaliatory rebound, the current around the market have been The release of the real estate market control policies will not have much change, the market turnover will continue the market in 2013, the entire market fundamentals will continue to show a "counter-economic cycle" of the development characteristics of the property market will be in the second quarter of 2014 to show signs of overall continue to rebound.

The government report in the guaranteed housing made a large description of the same policy consulting research director Zhang Hongwei that housing security and real estate market regulation, is to actively and steadily promote the reform of the land management system and improve the healthy development of the urbanization of the institutional mechanism on the one hand. To effectively implement the local housing security plan, can not play the "numbers game", can actually do to protect the low-income groups in the process of actively and steadily promote the reform of the land management system and the new urbanization of the housing problem. In addition, we must continue to do a good job of regulating the real estate market, not only to give full play to the role of real estate in the macroeconomic bottoming out phase of the pulling of economic growth, but also not because of the market in this context of the rapid rise in prices of the commercial residential market and lead to the threshold of urbanization to raise again.

Chen Guoqiang: No suspense in property market policy optimistic about the integration of real estate and finance
In relation to the real estate industry, Li Keqiang said in the government work report, in 2013 to start the launch of the unified registration of real estate, focusing on the protection of housing projects and so on.

The report pointed out that in 2014, monetary policy should be kept moderately loose and tight, and that policy housing investment and financing mechanisms and tools should be innovated, with a market-oriented operation approach. It also specifically pointed out the need to categorize and regulate the situation in different cities, increase the supply of small and medium-sized commercial housing and shared property rights housing, and curb speculative investment demand.

Chen Guoqiang, vice president of the China Real Estate Society, believes that, compared with the previous government, especially compared with the industry atmosphere after the National Five a year ago, the report for real estate regulation and control of the expression appears to be downplaying the tone of calm, and the content of no surprise.

In the integration of real estate and finance, Chen Guoqiang believes that the report proposes to steadily promote the establishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions initiated by private capital, and guide the private capital to participate in and invest in financial institutions and intermediary service institutions, which is a positive affirmation of the relevant initiatives of real estate enterprises, such as Vanke, last year, and it can be expected to stimulate the participation of more private enterprises (fewer than the figure of real estate enterprises) and the enthusiasm of private capital.

With regard to housing security, Chen Guoqiang said that there are many new ideas in the report, such as increasing the proportion of guaranteed housing in large cities; innovating policy housing investment and financing mechanisms and tools, and adopting market-oriented operation methods to provide long-term, stable and cost-appropriate financial support for the construction of guaranteed housing, and so on. This indicates that the government will also reflect the differentiated policy on housing security, avoiding the simplistic one-size-fits-all approach according to local conditions; at the same time, market-oriented thinking and means should also be applied in the field of security housing construction.

As for the transformation of real estate enterprises, Chen Guoqiang pointed out that the Premier's report requires that consumption be the main focus of expanding domestic demand, proposes to expand the consumption of services, supports the social forces to set up various types of service institutions, focuses on the development of services such as pensions, health, tourism, culture, and the implementation of the paid leave system, which is beneficial to the pension real estate, cultural real estate, tourism, leisure and vacation industry that has already been developing, and it also makes clear directions for the transformation of the real estate industry in various forms. Transformation of real estate clear direction.