Author:
Yang Kecheng (1947-), Chinese-American physicist

 

[View China2016surname Nian04moon20(Jiji Press) - On the North Korean side, the United Nations2270The effects of the sanctions of Resolution No. 1 have begun to show, and oil prices have begun to rise across the DPRK. Meanwhile, the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) newspaper, Labor News3moon28The editorial "The Strongest Strength of the DPRK" was published on January 28, calling on the people of the DPRK to conduct another "March of Suffering". The so-called "March of Misery" refers to the march in the1994annum1998the difficult state of mass famine and near-stagnation of economic activity in the DPRK in 2007. Kim Jong-un, in2At the end of the month, the country was mobilized for the "70Day Campaign", encouraging all party members and the entire nation to contribute to the realization of the right to life in the5The Seventh Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, held at the beginning of the month, made sacrifices and even direct donations.

 

According to outside analysis, the seventh congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) will be held in the5moon7was held in Pyongyang on March This is36It is also the first all-party congress since Kim Jong-un's accession to the throne. At the congress, Kim Jong-un is expected to declare that the DPRK is already a nuclear-armed state and to promulgate his own guiding ideology for the country, following the Juche of his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and the Songun of his father, Kim Jong-il.4moon15On Sunday, North Korea launched another missile into the Sea of Japan on Kim Il Sung's birthday, which failed.

 

In South Korea, the conservative ruling party, the New World Party (NWP), was defeated in the National Assembly elections. From control300out of the total number of parliamentary seats153Down to122This makes President Park a "lame duck" with only about one-third of the National Assembly. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) and the Nationalist Party (NPP) unexpectedly turned around and won the election, winning the first two seats respectively.123Seats and38seats. One can't help but wonder if this foreshadows an increase in2018Will a "leftist" of the Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun type emerge from the presidential election in 2007 to deal with the current nuclear issue with North Korea in a way that expands engagement and encourages trade?

 

The new changes between the two countries in this past month also create six possibilities for the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula. These six possibilities are also just the author's personal opinion, they are not of the same size and will be influenced by new subsequent developments.

 

Possibility 1: Continued stalemate

 

Kim Jong-un continued to defy the general opposition of the international community and was bent on forcing his way through the fifth underground nuclear and missile tests, despite the pressure of sanctions, while investing large amounts of resources in the construction of nuclear weapons delivery platforms and nuclear weapons arsenals. But the nuclear test did not result in a qualitative change in nuclear technology, and subsequently led to further UN sanctions, which could even affect North Korea's tourism industry and its overseas labor exports, and tighten the country's already small foreign exchange reserves. According to Chinese experts, North Korea could even run out of aviation fuel this year. But war will not break out. As long as North Korea does not break the bottleneck of nuclear weapon miniaturization, then the US and South Korea will not strike. This nuclear-test-sanctions-nuclear-test-further-sanctions-nuclear-test cycle will be repeated until North Korea runs out of resources or breaks through this safety valve and is destroyed by the U.S.-South Korean military.

 

Possibility II: Full-scale war

 

Kim Jong-un continues to be bent on forcing through underground nuclear and missile tests against the pressure of sanctions, while investing large amounts of resources in the construction of nuclear weapons delivery platforms and nuclear weapons arsenals. After a certain nuclear test (not necessarily the next one), the United States and South Korea already have decisive evidence that the DPRK has succeeded in miniaturizing its nuclear weapons, which, after being made public, they have also used as a justification for destroying the DPRK's nuclear facilities by force without China's permission.

 

North Korea's nuclear facilities were completely irrational after they were destroyed by force and stationed in theDMZ(38Self-propelled artillery from the demilitarized zone near the 38th parallel (DMZ) was directed at South Korea in retaliatory strikes against cities and military installations in northern South Korea, including Seoul. The U.S. and South Korea cross the 38th parallel to the north at great cost and begin the "liberation" of Korea. The Second Korean War broke out in full force.

 

If war breaks out, China should send its troops into the peninsula. Of course, it will not be to "resist the United States and aid North Korea", in order to preserve the North Korean regime and start another war with the South Korean-United States allied forces, but for the sake of China's own national interests and national security. Once the Korean War breaks out again, there will be countless wounded soldiers and refugees flooding into China. Many people in North Korea have not been vaccinated because of its extremely poor health infrastructure, making them vulnerable to infectious diseases. It has even brought infectious diseases into China's national territory.

 

During the war, China could draw a demilitarized zone along the border inside North Korea to house refugees and not allow them to enter Chinese soil in large numbers. This demilitarized zone, controlled by Chinese troops, would eventually be used as a bargaining chip to negotiate with the ROK-US coalition on four conditions: first, a reunified Korea permanently gives up its nuclear weapons. Second, all U.S. ground troops in South Korea are to be withdrawn, with a few dozen retained in a symbolic sense at most. Third, South Korea accepts all refugees unconditionally. Fourth, the border between South Korea and China after reunification will be based on the current territorial border between China and North Korea, and South Korea may not make new territorial claims. After all the conditions have been negotiated and agreed upon, China and the United States will withdraw their troops at the same time.

 

The 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea will be held in5moon7was held in Pyongyang on March This is36years, and also the first all-party congress since Kim Jong-un's accession to the throne.

 

This second possibility is one of the most violent extremes discussed. In the past, the likelihood of a full-scale war has been very remote, and it is unlikely today, but it is becoming more and more likely as North Korea continues its development of a nuclear weapons program. Korean War2.0Once it breaks out, it will be a disaster for the countries of Northeast Asia. The author and any peace-loving people are very reluctant to see it. But stopping the war requires Kim Jong-un to have a rational judgment of the situation, not to be bent on having his own way, and a basic trust in other countries, including China. I am afraid no one can guarantee that Kim Jong-un has these two qualities now.

 

Possibility III: Negotiations after military strikes

 

The first half of the third possibility is the same as the former, with North Korea continuing to be bent on developing nuclear weapons. But after the U.S. and South Korea destroyed its nuclear facilities, North Korea stayed rational and sober and did not retaliate on a large scale, which prevented the outbreak of war. This is somewhat similar to1981Israel succeeded in stopping the development of Iraq's nuclear program by not retaliating in the form of an all-out war after the Israeli military destruction of Iraq's nuclear facilities in the "Operation Babylon" of 1948. North Korea may even suspend its nuclear program and return to the Six-Party Talks.

 

The likelihood of this is very slim. Because North Korea is not a democracy, its leader does not rely on votes, but on a legitimacy that is a mixture of nationalism and personal worship. If he were to suffer a military strike without retaliation, Kim Jong-un's hard-line image of "autonomy and independence" and "never bowing down to the outside world," which he has always packaged himself as within North Korea, would immediately collapse, to the detriment of his regime's internal stability. All in all, I find it hard to imagine that North Korea, which has a history of returning fire for fire in all matters, would soften its stance after the destruction of its nuclear facilities. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that he kept his head in a life-and-death situation.

 

Possibility four: proactive negotiation

 

This should be the most peaceful possibility that all countries are now looking forward to. That is, before the next nuclear test, the DPRK will voluntarily return to the negotiating table of the Six-Party Talks. Because of the sanctions, the North Korean elite has gradually lost the material incentives of "gift politics". The pressure from the outside was transformed into internal pressure, and the elites kept using various reasons to convince Kim Jong-un. Finally, the DPRK made the above decision.

 

One of the dilemmas on the peninsula at present is that since the political mutual trust between the DPRK and the ROK and the United States is nil, neither side is willing to put into practice its own promises first. South Korea and the United States say that the DPRK must give up its nuclear weapons before they can consider signing a peace treaty and normalizing diplomatic relations with it. But the DPRK demands that the other side sign a peace treaty and normalize relations with it first, so that it can give up its nuclear weapons only when it has sufficient security guarantees. From1994Up to now, both sides have been stuck in the dilemma of "you do your homework first, then I'll think about mine", and the conflict is getting deeper and deeper, and mutual trust is getting lower and lower.

 

the Chinese side in3The idea of "going hand in hand" was put forward in January, and the two sides can actually carry out the two processes of peace treaty talks and denuclearization talks at the same time, so that the irreversible denuclearization of the peninsula can be accomplished at the same time as the signing of the peace treaty at the end of the day. But at present, North Korea has not expressed any intention to negotiate. Perhaps with the effect of sanctions gradually spreading out, North Korea can take the initiative to return to the negotiating table, and even reach a "parallel" agreement, which is also the optimal solution to the current dilemma of the parties.

 

Possibility 5: Staying put

 

Some analysts predict that if President Park Jin-hye is still unable to stop North Korea's nuclear program, "pendulum politics" may swing to the left and produce a progressive South Korean president.

 

The results of South Korea's parliamentary elections just past surprised many analysts, with the conservatives winning just barely over a third of the seats, proving that the South Korean public has a lot of dissatisfaction with the current conservative New World Party. Both the revision of Korea's history textbooks and the permanent comfort women agreement with Japan are extremely controversial in South Korea. It is unclear how much these votes reflect the public's attitude toward the authorities' handling of the inter-Korean issue, but some analysts predict that if President Park Jin-hye is still unable to stop North Korea's nuclear program, "pendulum politics" could swing to the left and produce a progressive president.

 

Traditionally, the South Korean left has been more dovish about North Korea, arguing that the North Korean nuclear problem is largely due to outside security pressures on the North. If these pressures are lifted, sufficient economic aid is given to North Korea, hostility is eliminated, and domestic economic reforms like those in China or Vietnam are encouraged, North Korea will gradually lose interest in nuclear weapons. Kim Dae-jung in1998The "sunshine policy" was introduced in 2007, followed by the "sunshine policy" in2000surname Nian6moon13The first inter-Korean summit was held in Pyongyang with Kim Jong-il on September 30th. Roh Moo-hyun came to power and further developed his engagement policy by proposing the "Peace and Prosperity" policy.2007The inter-Korean summit was held for the second time in 2007.

 

The North Korean authorities are bound to hope that another leftist president will emerge in South Korea, thus pushing for the lifting of sanctions and the start of peace talks with the DPRK, without making the abandonment of nuclear weapons a prerequisite for the negotiations. So the author believes that North Korea is also likely to stay put for the time being, with the opposite side of the stalemate, will not take the initiative to further escalate things. Or even suspend its nuclear program after the May Workers' Party Congress, and look at the situation in South Korea and the results of the U.S. presidential election.

 

Possibility 6: Internal collapse of the DPRK

 

Internal collapse of the DPRK (Implosion) has always been a very real possibility and a concern for surrounding nations. The battle plan of the ROK-US coalition5029No. It was meant for a North Korean internal collapse scenario. South Korea during the Roh Tae-woo presidency (1988-1993) years that with the dramatic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea would soon either disintegrate or open up as well. So South Korea took the initiative to establish diplomatic relations with China and the Soviet Union, hoping to get the support of these two powers for South Korea to absorb a collapsed North Korea, just as West Germany absorbed East Germany. But instead of opening up or collapsing, North Korea has survived to this day.

 

However, this does not mean that the North Korean regime will have its existence and will never collapse. The North Korean regime is still one of the most fragile and sensitive regimes in the world because there are so many factors that can lead to its internal collapse. Kim Jong-un is now in the midst of a constant purge of the North Korean hierarchy in order to secure his personal power, and almost every North Korean elite, from Ri Young-ho, to Jang Sung-taek, and Hyun Yong-chol, is in danger of being executed. In this highly tense environment of power struggle, it is even possible that someone could preemptively stage a coup and assassinate Kim Jong-un himself, causing a major upheaval within the North Korean elite and subsequent collapse.

 

In addition to the ruling class imploding in a coup d'état, North Korea's weak infrastructure is also a factor that can lead to an implosion. As mentioned earlier, North Korea's sanitary conditions and infrastructure are very weak, and because of the massive malnutrition of the North Korean people, the population's relative immunity is very poor. If an international infectious disease were to enter the country or if a plague were to break out within the country, it would most likely be devastating to the North Korean population.2013surname Nian12When the Ebola virus epidemic broke out in West Africa in January, the DPRK was so nervous that it closed the country's borders for a period of time, and even the ambassadors of confederate countries to the DPRK were not allowed to go to their posts. This exposed the fear and weakness of the North Korean authorities about the plague. Floods, pests, and various other natural disasters can deeply hurt the stability of the North Korean authorities.

 

If North Korea does collapse internally, the author believes that China will react the same way it theoretically reacted to the outbreak of the Second Korean War. Send troops into North Korea to stem the flow of refugees into China, followed by negotiations with South Korea and the United States. All in all, the author believes that China has no major objections to a democratic Seoul-based regime unifying the Korean Peninsula, but would never let either side take the initiative to start a major war and engage in forceful reunification.

 

The author of this article works at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service