Two "firsts" in Xi's visit to Japan2023-07-07
Looking back at the extraordinary year 2009, China's economy took the lead in recovering from the financial crisis that swept across the globe. The A-share market delivered an eye-catching answer under the difficulty of the sudden increase in the pressure of the unlocking of restricted shares. Looking at 2010, China's economy, policy, A-share market direction are many variables, people are full of imagination.
Conjecture 1 Inflation may exceed expectations
So far, the vast majority of mainstream economists believe that this year's inflation in China will be "moderate inflation", CPI annual rate of increase will not exceed 2%. but so consistent expectations, but is likely to become the biggest variable. At present, China's real estate market and the stock market has been obvious "asset inflation", the real economy, CPI year-on-year from negative to positive, the first signs of inflation have appeared.
Not long ago, Deutsche Bank Greater China Chief Economist Ma Jun told reporters that in 2010 China's CPI inflation rate in fact there is a lot of floating space, as long as the agricultural products (000061, stock bar) and residential-related consumer price increases, this year's CPI more than 4%, up to 5% is not an unlikely thing.
Conjecture 2 Exports may become the dark horse
Recently, the three leading export indicators, namely "Mainland China's imports from Japan and South Korea", FDI and trade receipts in advance, have reversed sharply. These three indicators have always been the barometer of the import and export trade, and in the second half of 2008, these three indicators declined sharply, followed by several months of double-digit negative growth in the import and export trade. The reversal of the three leading indicators will be an important sign of significant growth in mainland China's exports in the future. Cao Yuanzheng, director and chief economist of Bank of China International, said recently that exports may recover to 95% in 2010, which will be a positive contribution to the economic growth rate. Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan also said that in 2010 China's imports and exports to achieve a recovery in growth is entirely possible.
In the majority of domestic mainstream forecasts are not optimistic about exports, exports or will rise strongly, become the 2010 economic growth "dark horse".
Conjecture 3: Rate hike in the second quarter
As the global economy recovers, expectations of interest rate increases are rising in various countries. Australia, Israel, Norway and other countries have taken the lead in the interest rate hike cycle. Deutsche Bank Greater China Chief Economist Ma Jun said, from the past, the Federal Reserve will also be in the unemployment rate topped 6 months after the hands of the rate hike, according to this projection, the Federal Reserve is likely to be in 2010 in the middle of the year or the third quarter of the announcement of the interest rate hike. JPMorgan Chase Managing Director Li Jing recently said that China's central bank is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in the middle of 2010, the year or will be two 27 basis points of interest rate increases. Goldman Sachs said that with the gradual withdrawal of loose fiscal policy, the Chinese central bank in 2010 will raise the nominal benchmark interest rate by a cumulative total of 81 basis points, 27 basis points each time, the first interest rate hike is likely to be in the second quarter of 2010.
Conjecture 4 A slight reduction in the size of credit
2010 credit scale has also become the focus of market speculation. The latest version is, 2010 credit scale roughly framed 7.5 trillion yuan. It is understood that the central economic work conference held recently, this data has been basically fixed.
Industry analysts, although 7.5 trillion yuan of loan size looks significantly lower than the 2009 annual level of nearly 10 trillion yuan, but taking into account the 2009 did not enter the real economy of about 2 trillion yuan of credit funds may return to the 2010 credit loosening degree similar to 2009.
Conjecture 5 Sky-high financing is unavoidable
Taking into account the listed banks refinancing, large brokerage IPO, red chip return, international boards and new shares issued by the over-subscription phenomenon is serious and other factors, a number of brokerage firms predicted that the securities market in 2010 may usher in the amount of financing, the scale of up to 900 billion yuan. This data has exceeded the 2007 bull market financing scale, the impact on the market will obviously be negative. However, taking into account the limited capacity of the market, Everbright Securities (601788, stock bar) that the actual financing scale is estimated at about 500 billion yuan. Shenyin Wanguo analyst Lin Jin predicted that the annual stock market financing may be close to 800 billion yuan; Guotai Junan with "days" to describe the financing scale this year.
Conjecture 6 The introduction of stock index futures
Following the Securities and Futures Commission Chairman Shang Fulin and a number of regulatory leaders intensively state that will be launched as soon as possible financing, stock index futures, recently there are rumors that the State Council has approved the stock index futures. Although so far not confirmed by the top, but the launch of stock index futures has been unprecedentedly high expectations, the launch of stock index futures in 2010, as well as financing financing seems to have become a definitive event. For the launch of the time, the industry generally predicted that the stock index futures is launched in the first half of the year, while the financing of securities or the launch of stock index futures first, the specific time may be at the end of the Spring Festival, in March or so.
Conjecture 7 The International Board will be listed
GEM in full swing, but also the launch of the international board of calls gradually. Shanghai Stock Exchange Deputy General Manager Liu Xiaodong recently said that the international board rules are being developed, and will be launched first pilot, which is the latest statement of the person in charge of the international board. It is reported that the Securities and Futures Commission has set up a group specializing in the study of international boards, the Shanghai Stock Exchange International Department, the Legal Department and the Department of listed companies have drawn specialists to participate in the activities of the group.
In the past, some companies with good assets have been listed overseas, but most of their business operations are in China, which is difficult for Chinese investors to share. The launch of the international board will change this situation. At present, China Mobile, Kingdee Software and other companies may become the first batch of companies listed on the international board, riding the first train.
Conjecture 8 GEM now delisted
As the GEM board in 2010 continues to expand, the number of GEM board companies will also soar, meet the delisting requirements of the company will also appear. With the management of the recent strengthening of regulatory efforts, in 2010 there will be GEM companies will start the delisting process is also reasonable.
As the majority of ordinary investors, before buying a GEM stock, must be fully aware of the potential risk of delisting, which is the past many years of A-share investors habits, I'm afraid it is not consistent, really need to pay great attention.
Conjecture 9 Blue Chips Become Dominant
Into 2010, financing and securities, stock index futures are expected to launch, blue chip companies may become multiple driving force driven by the benefit of the company, while small and medium-cap stocks are facing the pressure of the premium is too high and need to be adjusted. This determines the direction of this year's market or by the blue chips dominated.
CICC released a new research report that, with the establishment of the policy tone of the Central Economic Work Conference and the subsequent dust of the relevant industry policy guidance, uncertainty will be gradually eliminated, the size of the disk style rotation is inevitable, the next month is the tactical layout of the time of the large-cap blue-chip stocks.
Conjecture 10 A shares climb to the top
Almost all institutions are singing the A-share market in 2010. CICC believes that the market in the next 12 months is expected to rise 25%-30% (i.e., 1,000 points of upside), GF Securities see 4100 points, CITIC Securities (600030, bar) see 4500 points, CITIC CITIC see 5000 points. ★