Wen丨Niu Baoqin (牛弹琴)

Putin is saddened that the titular Russian ambassador to Turkey has been shot in broad daylight.

The murderer was so arrogant that he brazenly approached the Russian ambassador at close range and opened fire, leaving Karloff's body on the spot, drenched in blood.

The gunmen also shouted slogans at the scene: Don't forget Aleppo, don't forget Syria. (repeat). Our land is not safe, and neither will you be. I will not get out alive. Everyone who has a part in this tyranny will pay.

Because of Syria, Russia had a fighter jet taken out by the Turks last year and an ambassador taken out by the Turks this year.

The young murderer who fell was the Russian ambassador.

(i)

An ambassador is a representative of a country, and the killing of an ambassador of a country is an extremely serious act of provocation from any point of view.

States have issued statements offering condolences to Karloff and strongly condemning the murder.

The Council met urgently to condemn in the strongest terms this terrorist attack in Ankara. The Council reaffirmed that terrorism in all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. The perpetrators of these terrorist acts must be brought to justice. At the same time, the Council emphasizes the fundamental principle of the inviolability of diplomatic agents and consular officials.

Qualified! This is an act of terrorism.

But it doesn't end there.

Because it was also a Turkish policeman who assassinated the Russian ambassador.

The Russian ambassador was visiting an exhibition of paintings entitled "Russia through the eyes of the Turks"; as a result, the Turks killed the Russian ambassador.

Russian-Turkish relations just turned around and now the Russian ambassador has been killed in the Turkish capital.

Turkish President Erdogan rushed to talk to Putin on the phone and both announced that a joint investigation team would be set up. Erdogan also said that the killing of the Russian ambassador to Turkey was an attack on the Turkish people.

But a Turkish policeman, who publicly took out the Russian ambassador, even though the policeman was working against the government, still exposed the deep-seated conflict between Russia and Turkey.

One of the most glamorous things Putin has done in the past two years has been to return to the Middle East and rewrite the geopolitical landscape with a bang, putting the Syrian process firmly in Russia's hands.

But Putin's forced insertion irritated the U.S., irritated Europe, and angered Turkey even more.

Mr. Ambassador was speaking at an exhibition before he was shot.

(ii)

With ten wars between Russia and Turkey in history, and many places such as what is now Crimea being the homeland of Ottoman Turkey, it is obviously impossible to say that Turkey does not have a historical heartbreak with Russia.

But since World War I, a territorially diminished Turkey lacked the strength to call Russia's bluff directly. Although Turkey became the only Islamic country in NATO, the relationship between the two countries essentially epitomized the state of the Cold War. When the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred, Khrushchev eventually caved in and withdrew Soviet missiles from Cuba, and as a face-saving move, the Soviet Union also asked the United States to withdraw corresponding missiles from Turkey.

At one point, Russian-Turkish relations were on the brink of war over Syria.

Russia naturally claimed that going to Syria was a way to combatISBut in the eyes of Turkey, the Russian shells, one-third of which hit theISTwo thirds fought the opposition, including ethnic Turkmen in Syria.

Let's not forget that Turkey considers itself to be the big brother of the Turks, with Turkmen in the near future and Việt Nam in the far future.–Gur, are his Turkic little brothers. The beating is on the little brother, but the pain is on the big brother's heart. Moreover, Russia's intervention has given the precarious Bashar regime, which Turkey has been the country behind the overthrow of, a chance to rise again.

In addition, Russia's military involvement in favor of the Kurdish forces, the Kurdish is Turkey's heart and soul. Therefore, Turkey has not been accused of Russia's counter-terrorism mixed with selfishness, once again protested and summoned the Russian ambassador, and even sued the United Nations, requesting the convening of the Security Council to discuss the so-called counter-terrorism of Russia.

The most intense scene was last year when Turkey cleanly knocked out a Russian warplane in three hits. It infuriated Putin to the point where he cursed that the Turks were stabbing him in the back.

Russian-Turkish relations then hit freezing point, and even more dramatically, this year's coup in Turkey, where the latter was lucky to escape after Russia reportedly informed Erdogan of the information in advance.

The coup had traces of U.S. meddling, and U.S.-Turkish relations naturally took a sharp turn for the worse; Erdogan quickly mended fences with Putin, and Russian-Turkish relations are in the honeymoon period.

But right in the middle of your love affair, the Russian ambassador was taken out by the Turks.

What a breathless international drama!

(iii)

The world, the fiercest nation, is often considered to be Russia.

Georgia played with fire, Putin immediately drove his tanks to Tbilisi, Georgia had to accept the alliance under the city, so South Ossetia became independent from Georgia; Ukraine expelled the Putin-supported president, so the Russian army appeared in Crimea, and Russia directly annexed this strategic area, and the eastern part of Ukraine is also at war, and the good country is now plunged into a prolonged civil war.

Syria is more of a whirlpool, there has been a lesson in the United States to avoid, no matter how the Republican Party ridicule, Obama is to bite the bullet, determined not to send troops. But I don't want to, Putin waved his hand, Russian warplanes flew to Damascus, and it is said that there are ground special forces have been fighting in Syria.

So, in this world, you can call Obama's bluff, you can make trouble in France, but it is best not to mess with the polar bear nonsense. Some Chinese people still always look envious, Russia is who mess with me who I beat, how we become who mess with me who I scold?

But when you come out, you have to pay back.

Last year an airplane was shot down, this year an ambassador was killed. Russia has also paid a heavy price for Syria.

Putin is going to retaliate, but it's not yet the same as last year's incident, where the other party was not a country, but an act of terrorism!

Erdogan also rushed to say that the murderer was stirring up Turkish-Russian relations. If Russia does retaliate against Turkey, it seems to have fallen even further into the trap set by the murderers.

And, given the sharp differences between Russia and Turkey over Syria, and despite Erdogan's closeness to Putin, when it comes to public opinion, ordinary Turks don't really have to hide their anger at Russia.

In all likelihood, a similar tragedy will happen again.

Putin won Aleppo, but lost the ambassador. To add to Putin's anger, he can't retaliate, and has the will to kill a thief in the face of public opinion hostile to Russia.

(iv)

The Middle East is in turmoil, and while the US and Russia look good, they are actually hurting, both having already lost an ambassador each.

The American ambassador was killed in Benghazi because of Libya.

The Russian ambassador was killed in Ankara because of Syria.

Niu Baoqin has worked in the Middle East for several years, a land of tigers and wolves, with complex ethnic, historical and religious contradictions, and with wars following one another, it can really be said to be the graveyard of great powers.

The more you fight, the more chaos and human tragedy. Three rough observations, I guess:

First, Syria is a maelstrom, don't think it's a fat piece of meat. Russia is in it, Turkey is in it, and a big melee has just begun. Moreover, although Russia is fierce, under the surroundings of strong enemies, Russia also has the possibility of falling into the quagmire. In many wars, it is easy to get in and hard to get out. The United States has the lessons of the Vietnam War, Russia will not forget the shadow of the war in Afghanistan.

Secondly, it is better to be a lost dog than a disaffected person. Many people do not think that this is a cry for blood. The murderer mentioned the battle of Aleppo, I will kill after you kill, what protection of civilians, are just a beautiful front. A good and famous city is now broken and miserable. Niu Baoqin stayed in some war-torn countries, a peaceful environment, is the greatest expectation of the people in war-torn areas.

Third, for China, the show has just begun. The more chaotic the Middle East is, the harder it is for Trump to get out of his way to deal with China, and the longer China's period of strategic opportunity will be. Those who used to advocate that China should send troops to Syria, in the words of a friend, I really don't know what to say, because this is a nothing to discuss the IQ question. Look at the United States, are in a hurry to get out of the Middle East; look at Russia, the surface scenery, the actual cost is terrible, riding a tiger difficult to get down.

Great nations need to be ambitious, but are there fewer great nations that have been buried by ambition?