A combination of multiple sources suggests that:

All parties on the Korean peninsula are stepping up their preparations for war!

Korean Joseon or Chosun dynasty 1392-1910 : War has been mobilized into a war evacuation drill without water and electricity. North Korea will have an indefinite nationwide blackout starting tonight. Missile launches and the targeting of 4,000 artillery pieces at the 38th parallel have been set, claiming a preemptive terror strike against South Korea.

South Korea (Republic of Korea) : 30Ten thousand people participated in military exercises and the country entered a state of war.

United States of America : The decapitation unit has moved into South Korea.2A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier group,B52Bomber,F35Fighters, Gray Eagle drones,36racksF22Stealth fighters, guided bombs, and landing craft are all deployed, and maneuvers with bombs and dress rehearsals are underway.

sino : The largest combat radius of the Jagdpanther.11BWarplanes are cruising over Sinuiju every day, missile units, tanks and armored units have been mobilized along the Yalu River, and the Dongfeng31AIntercontinental missiles were publicly unveiled along the northeastern border, and upgrades to the Tumen-Cheongjin railroad have been completed.

The current situation on the peninsula is such that any military maneuver by the two Koreas, especially the DPRK, could be the trigger that becomes a war.

[Depth]

China's Diplomacy Finally Returns to Reason as U.S. in Full Showdown

For nearly a month, China's official media and the Foreign Ministry's daily press conferences have angrily denounced South Korea's introduction of the U.S. SAD system, demanding that South Korea and the U.S. immediately pull back from the brink or China will take resolute measures to counterattack; and then fire departments around the world have seized the fire inspection for failing to pass the50A number of Korean-owned Lotte supermarkets, illegal gatherings besieging Lotte supermarkets broke out in many places, and violent vandalism of supermarkets and insults to Koreans in China occurred in individual places.

Just a week ago after U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson announced his trip to visit China, Japan, and South Korea, China's fire department immediately halted its seizure of Lotte Supermarket; public security departments around the world began to seriously enforce the law by forcibly removing illegal besiegers of Lotte Supermarkets from the scene who didn't heed the warnings; and the biggest shift came from the public stance of a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), whose stance last week came to be a180degree turn, expressed understanding of South Korea in order to strengthen its own security to take the necessary defense measures; foreign ministry spokesman's words just fell, China's official media in a series of articles denouncing the deployment of South Korea and the United States of the SAD system, overnight disappeared without a trace.

The speech of the top head of the Communist Party of China (CPC) receiving U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson clearly explains the major policy shift made by the relevant Chinese departments and the Chinese official media on the deployment of South Korea's Saad system, and it is also fully in line with what I have been advocating lately, that is, the direction of China-U.S. relations has a bearing on the continuation of China's reform and opening up, and on China's national security and the well-being of its people, and that, in the face of a strongman like Trump, China can no longer be as aggressive as it has been in the past few years. In the face of such a strong man as Trump, China can no longer be as aggressive as it has been in the past few years, striking on all sides, but to return to the rational and pragmatic foreign policy advocated by Deng Xiaoping in his time, without which there is no way out. Although my recent articles have been repeatedly blocked, and my WeChat public number has been permanently blocked, and countless so-called patriots have gone to my blog and WeChat public number to scream and hurl insults, I am very happy to see that China's foreign policy has finally returned to the right path.

In fact, a more in-depth study of China-United States relations will reveal that China's return to rationality in its policy towards the United States has long been evident. The most obvious, first, the United States in South Korea to deploy the SAD system, China has been only to South Korea, vocal accusations, rarely mention the United States, much less issued any public threat to the United States; Second, the United States sent aircraft carrier battle groups and strategic bombers high-profile South China Sea freedom of navigation operations, China reversed the past to send warships to follow the track, and in the strong diplomatic protests of the practice, this time, from the official to the media all pretended to be This time, everyone from officials to the media pretended to turn a blind eye. In the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the only mention of the free navigation operation of the U.S. military in the South China Sea, the position of the Chinese side has changed from the previous years that the South China Sea is the doorstep of China, and no extra-territorial countries can be allowed to get their hands on the South China Sea, to the fact that freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is not a problem in the first place, and said that the issue of the South China Sea has already cooled down, and the attitude of putting things to rest is that the South China Sea is the position of the international high seas.

The major shift in China's policy toward the United States actually involves a major change in the entirety of China's foreign policy. This is because China is finally recognizing that Trump, unlike any president before him in the United States, is a man of his word, decisive in his actions, and even a formidable adversary who is so good at face-saving that he can only kiss his ass, without offending his dignity in the least. Given that the U.S.-China trade surplus is so huge, there is no annual U.S.-to-China3600Multi-billion dollar trade surplus, not to mention the lack of money to spread money everywhere, the RMB exchange rate immediately became the Russian ruble; plus although the Chinese media and patriots describe China's military power as invincible, in fact, China and the United States of America's comprehensive national strength and military strength of the huge gap between China's policymakers know only too well. As the Chinese saying goes, "You don't know how expensive it is until you're in charge". Similarly, do not know how many kilograms and taels you have if you are not in charge. Strength and interests determine everything, it is not the Chinese media to fool some patriotic slogans can really be invincible. Of course, China can also be like North Korea closed half-locked country, claiming that they are the world's most politically correct, economically developed and militarily strongest country. Obviously, Chinese policymakers have made a strategic decision not to compete with North Korea, choosing to continue China's reform and opening up.

Back to the North Korean nuclear issue, as I have recently analyzed, don't look at the Chinese media hype about how tense the North Korean issue, China in the North Korean issue of how decisive influence, but one as long as North Korea does not take the initiative to provocation, the Korean Peninsula for the time being will not have a war, because the United States is aimed at both the protection of Japan and South Korea's security, while also focusing on China's containment of North Korea, the more ferocious, the more containment of China's The more fierce North Korea is, the tighter the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea will be, so the United States will never take the initiative to take action against the DPRK; secondly, China has lost all the good cards on the issue of North Korea, coupled with the DPRK's nuclear weapons program is indeed a serious threat to China's national security, and now can only sincerely choose to cooperate with the international community, and there is no possibility of covert support for the DPRK regime in the development of nuclear weapons, and even in the United States to launch military strikes on North Korea once again. anti-U.S. support for North Korea.

The attitude of the United States in the showdown on the DPRK issue is so decisive that it hardly gives China any room for negotiation and bargaining. First, when Secretary of State Tillerson visited Japan and South Korea, he openly declared at a joint press conference that the strategic patience of the United States had come to an end; that the United States would no longer seek to make the DPRK give up its nuclear weapons through negotiations; and that when the United States judged on its own that the threat of the DPRK's nuclear missile had come to a certain intolerable level, it would resort to all means to resolve the DPRK's nuclear missile threat, including pre-emptive decapitation actions. Such a diplomatic statement is in fact a declaration that the United States is ready to resolve the nuclear issue by war.  

It's the same diplomatic stance that the U.S. has historically taken when it sends troops to any country. During his press conference in South Korea, Tillerson also criticized China for boycotting South Korea over the deployment of the SAD system. To prove that Tillerson's aforementioned statement represents President Trump's decision-making, a White House spokesperson then flatly stated that this is President Trump's consistent position.

If Tillerson's criticism of China and the"Leaving China out of the equation and leaving it up to US judgment to decide when to do something about North Korea."statement that the message wasn't clear enough if Trump then said:"North Korea's behavior is very bad. They have been playing the US for years. China hasn't helped much."Keep in mind that at this time, Tillerson is on his way to Beijing for a visit. Trump is not giving China any face at all!

Sino-American relations have eased!

18Tillerson held a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister on January 1, 2010, after which both sides held a press conference; on the same day, State Councilor Yang Jiechi met with U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. According to the press release issued by Chinese officials, the Chinese side counted the importance of the U.S.-China relationship, especially emphasized that the two sides discussed how to deepen the spirit of comprehensive friendship and cooperation as determined by the two heads of state and looked forward to lifting the U.S.-China relationship to a new height; discussed how to create a good atmosphere to realize the meeting between the two heads of state and made careful preparations for the upcoming meeting of the heads of state of the U.S.-China countries; and announced that the two countries have reached a consensus in terms of the general direction of the solution to the DPRK nuclear issue. have reached a consensus. From the beginning to the end, the Chinese side did not mention the unpleasantness between the two sides, and the differences and contradictions between the two sides were only mentioned in terms of"Managing differences between the two sides to prevent affecting the overall situation of China-US friendship"A phrase that carries over.

Pictures from the scene show that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who has always been unflappable and often answered reporters' questions in the press conference, was smiling and considerate to the U.S. Secretary of State. For the reporter's ulterior motive to ask Wang how he views Tillerson's previous comments in South Korea and Japan, Wang simply turned a deaf ear, no comment, only emphasized that China and the United States in the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue has reached a consensus on the general direction, I believe that China and the United States will continue to deepen the win-win cooperation and friendly relations.

Nor did Foreign Minister Wang revisit the issue of de-escalation on the Korean Peninsula, which the U.S., South Korea and the DPRK have categorically rejected in unison."double-parking"There is not even a single word about China's strong position of not allowing war or chaos to break out on the Korean peninsula.

Let's take a look at how the U.S. State Department press release puts it. The State Department's press release says that Secretary of State Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met for the first time to discuss the growing challenge posed by North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. In a statement, the State Department said Tillerson"Urge China to use all available tools to de-escalate North Korea's destabilizing behavior"; they also talked about"The need for a level playing field for trade and investment"The discussion also touched on recent calls between Chinese and U.S. leaders in an effort to promote bilateral cooperation while resolving differences in a constructive manner.

Comparing the official news of China and the United States, I found the following differences:

1The U.S. side made no mention at all of the meeting between the two heads of state, which China considers to be of the utmost importance. This indicates that there are still some uncertainties as to whether the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States of America next month, as mentioned by the Chinese media, can be realized. The Chinese side is more eager to realize the meeting between the two heads of state, but the U.S. side does not seem to be in a hurry to realize the meeting between the two heads of state. This is very similar to the previous situation when the two heads of state exchanged phone calls.

2The United States side has not mentioned a word about the importance of China-United States relations, which the Chinese side has clamored about at great length. This shows that China-United States relations are indeed important to China, and it can even be said that the importance of China-United States relations ranks at the forefront of all of China's foreign relations, but they may not be the most important bilateral relations for the United States. In fact, the U.S. ranks the importance of the U.S.-Japan-Korea alliance, the U.S.-U.K. bilateral relationship, the U.S.-European Union-NATO relationship, the U.S.-Middle East alliance, the U.S.-Canada-Mexico near-neighborhood relationship, and even the U.S.-ASEAN relationship, ahead of the U.S.-China relationship.

3The U.S. side referred to the"Urge China to use all available tools to de-escalate North Korea's destabilizing behavior"The main purpose of the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, the Chinese side has been to the U.S. and China have reached a consensus, in fact, China's commitment to the strict implementation of the U.N. sanctions resolutions against the DPRK, and resolutely put an end to the prohibited behaviors similar to the richest man of Dandong, Ma Xiaohong, to the DPRK covertly provide sensitive nuclear materials, which may incur the international community's severe sanctions.

4The U.S. side referred to the talks between the two sides about"The need for a level playing field for trade and investment"That is to say, the United States continues to put pressure on China on the issue of trade imbalance between China and the United States. China never mentions this major contradiction in U.S.-China relations in its domestic media, and it has mostly glossed over the frequent U.S. pressure on this issue lately. This is because China does not want its domestic public to know that it has benefited so much from trade with the United States. Just as China mentioned Sino-Japanese relations, never said that Japan through huge low-interest yen loans and government free aid, supported China's reform and opening up. China's public opinion orientation of this kind of internal and external distinction will persist for a long time.

Try boycotting Korean goods again?

While China and the United States reached a series of friendly consensus in Beijing, local time18On Sunday, Chinese Finance Minister Xiao Jie and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Nuchin held their first talks in Germany after taking office. According to CNN, during the talks, the two finance ministers agreed that China-US economic cooperation is of great significance to the two countries and the world's economic growth. The two sides emphasized that they are confident that through cooperation to resolve the contradictions and problems arising in the process of rapid forward development of economic cooperation, and to raise the U.S.-China economic cooperation to a higher level. This shows that, in the face of the United States demanded China to solve the trade imbalance problem of great pressure, China is no longer aggressive, harsh words, but try to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States, to avoid the large-scale withdrawal of foreign capital from China and the collapse of the yuan exchange rate to bring disastrous consequences.

As I have analyzed in a number of articles since recently, the US has been in a full showdown with China in the direction of several major foreign policy decisions that China has aggressively taken in recent years. Trump's thunderous assertiveness has added to China's urgent need to show the United States goodwill to avoid a full-scale confrontation between China and the United States. Thankfully, as I expected, China's foreign policy has already made major adjustments, and it is expected that the Diaoyu Islands, South China Sea, cross-strait issues, and South Korea's deployment of the Saad system, which have been so hot in recent years that they have made the blood of countless patriots boil, will all cool down quickly. Especially on the issue of forcing North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, China and the United States will fully cooperate, if North Korea defiantly take the initiative to provoke, once the United States and South Korea to implement military strikes against North Korea, China will likely remain silent. It can be expected that any military strike against the DPRK will directly lead to the collapse of the regime and the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

Once again, I remind all the irrational"MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile"We, the wind has changed, the friendly relationship between China and the United States has to be elevated to a new height, and the friendship between China and Japan and China and South Korea will naturally come to fruition. Do not talk nonsense like you did a while ago, and do not even organize so-called patriotic and illegal gatherings to instigate the boycott of Japanese and Korean goods, or else what happened to the forefathers of the Boxer Rebellion, who were beheaded a hundred years ago, will also be the fate of your predecessors today.

Appendix:

Speculations on the direction of the situation in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Kangxi radical 118/sincerity

I. Three possibilities for the resolution of the Korean nuclear issue

1The Kim Jong-un regime, in the face of the military pressure exerted by the United States in conjunction with China, has decided to abandon its nuclear weapons and to cooperate with experts organized by the international community to dismantle all nuclear devices, thus settling the North Korean nuclear issue after more than a decade of tormenting the international community. The probability of reaching such an outcome is no less than85%Only with this result will Kim Jong-un be able to live out his days with a pardon from the international community.

2The Kim regime has refused to give up its nuclear weapons, but has promised to freeze its nuclear program permanently, and continues to try to ride out the crisis with a delaying tactic. China will cautiously welcome this, while the U.S., Japan and South Korea will continue to maintain a high-pressure posture, with the reins of sanctions tightened as always, until such time as North Korea decides to abandon its nuclear program after a domestic crisis triggers regime change. The probability of this outcome is only10%The

3The North Korean regime has chosen to throw its weight behind the confrontation with the international community, and the Kim regime has been reorganized after it was subverted by the United States-led international coalition in a military operation. The probability of such an outcome is only5%The

II. On U.S.-China cooperation in resolving the Korean nuclear issue

Any prediction envisioning China's exclusion from international action to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue is an emotional outburst, a speculation unsupported by credible sources of knowledge about the U.S.-China relationship, and the probability of this happening is0%The

The problem lies in the fact that although China and the United States share the same goal of resolving the DPRK nuclear issue, there are differences in the path and method of resolving the issue. China wants to preserve the Kim regime and resolve the DPRK nuclear issue in the context of the DPRK's domestic political stability, while the United States' approach to resolving the DPRK nuclear issue is straightforward: the DPRK's complete abandonment of its nuclear weapons, with no conditions attached.

The conceivable prospect is that, as the Kim regime, on a path of no return, rejects the exhortations of the Chinese Government and threatens to carry out a sixth nuclear test, the Chinese Government, in consultation with the United States Government, will reach an agreement on the issue of joining hands to put an end to the DPRK's nuclear threat to the international community.

Any vision that envisions China staying out of the solution to the Korean nuclear issue is, in a word, a big picture.

III. Timetable and road map for the resolution of the Korean nuclear issue

The resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue is one of the core issues discussed at the Trump-Xi estate meeting. The purpose of the U.S. Secretary of State's visit to China is to finalize the list of topics for the Trump-Xi meeting, and perhaps some of the topics can continue to talk about each other, but the topic of the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue must have reached a basic agreement before the summit. Otherwise, the summit is meaningless.

The predictable vision is that after the talks between Trump and Xi, the North Korean nuclear issue will inevitably enter the steps of resolution. Regardless of the Kim regime's compliance or recalcitrance, there will be little doubt that the North Korean nuclear nail will be removed by China and the United States.

If North Korea declares that it will never abandon its nuclear weapons, China will announce the termination of the China-North Korea alliance and not be bound by North Korea's continued nuclear bondage.

The remaining problem is that the international coalition forces formed by China and the United States will each do what they are supposed to do: the United States forces will be responsible for long-range precision strikes to paralyze the North Korean military machine, while China will be responsible for cleaning up the ground battlefield and doing the dirty work.

Any scenario in which U.S. forces, without the acquiescence or approval of the Chinese government, take so-called"beheading"This action is wishful thinking that has no regard for recent history. If such a state of affairs really occurs, there will be little doubt that the powder keg of Northeast Asia will be detonated into a localized war involving the Chinese army, and that it will even lead to a military confrontation between China and the United States in Korea. Because, according to the Sino-Korean pact, any third country's military action against North Korea is tantamount to military action against China, which will be involved in the war even if it is motivated by the need to safeguard the country's credibility.

However, the above scenario is unlikely to happen. Once the results of the Trump-Xi talks are made public, North Korea, seeing that the tide has turned, will dry up in the mud and choose to save its life and power. The probability of this would be as high as99%The

concluding remarks

The reason for the reluctance to envision that North Korea's nuclear issue would bring about an irreversible nuclear catastrophe in the Northeast and in China as a whole is because Yizhen insisted that China's powers-that-be would not tie the nation's fortunes and fortunes, once again, to the Kim regime.