{"id":3579,"date":"2023-07-07T21:24:23","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T13:24:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yzzks.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/07\/%e4%b8%80%e5%9b%be%e6%8f%ad%e7%a7%98%ef%bc%8c%e8%bf%99%e8%bd%ae%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%8f%8d%e5%bc%b9%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e4%b9%be%e5%9d%a4%e5%a4%a7%e6%8c%aa%e7%a7%bb%ef%bc%8c\/"},"modified":"2024-03-15T10:45:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-15T02:45:15","slug":"%e4%b8%80%e5%9b%be%e6%8f%ad%e7%a7%98%ef%bc%8c%e8%bf%99%e8%bd%ae%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%8f%8d%e5%bc%b9%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e4%b9%be%e5%9d%a4%e5%a4%a7%e6%8c%aa%e7%a7%bb%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/latest-news\/3579\/","title":{"rendered":"A chart reveals, this round of global rebound behind the dollar Qiankun big move, the yuan almost fell for it"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tSource: Politics and Economics Talk Public No. Wen\/Lui Si Hoi (1540-1647), Hong Kong actor and poet<\/em><\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t <\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tCountries have expressed dismay at the recent long-short battle of the yuan against the dollar.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tRumors that the U.S. and China may have engaged in a secret deal at the G20 are swirling.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn this regard, China's Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao said on the 22nd that there is no secret agreement between China and the United States on exchange rate adjustment.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThis is true.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tPolitics and economics talk, in recent months, after understanding the flow of global capital found that: the recent decline in the dollar, global commodities and stock market rebound, not because of what the G20 secret agreement, the dominant player behind the scenes, it is Wall Street. Wall Street capital under the cooperation of the Federal Reserve, staged an extremely classic Qiankun Da Nuo Yi.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n 1<\/strong>A and B passed each other, and said to each other, \"You're so stupid!<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIt's a classic battle of capital worthy of, well, Chinese institutions!\n<\/p>\n

\n\tFortunately, due to the yuan against the dollar, accidentally held up, so that China is temporarily free from the dollar capital copied once the back way, but also let Wall Street's harvest of this game, very limited.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tA picture is worth a thousand words, so look at one first:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tHere's a chart of how the dollar is trading in different trading time zones, as newly revealed by Bloomberg Financial News.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n   <\/strong>It tells us<\/strong>2<\/strong>A fact:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t1<\/strong>,<\/strong>After February 2016, traders were predominantly selling dollars during US trading hours. Almost all the selling against the dollar took place during US trading hours. It suggests that it was US capital that dominated the dollar sell-off.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t2<\/strong>,<\/strong>During Asian trading hours, European trading hours, the dollar is strong. It means that non-US countries, are buying the dollar predominantly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn fact, this is something that Politics and Economics Talk had talked about in its December 12, 2015 article, \"Last night, the most bullish Chinese manufacturing was completed, and the big financial showdown heavyweights quietly came out\":\n<\/p>\n

\n\tBasically, the dollar index rises when it comes to Asian trading hours and falls when it comes to European and American trading hours. This shows that, on the eve of the Fed's rate hike, many people, including China, have been long the dollar. This is the logical consequence of the fact that many Chinese, more than Americans, are bullish on the U.S. economy.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n   <\/em>In fact, the dollar had already peaked in stages by then.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tFigure 2:In the rectangle of the chart is the time-phased movement of the US dollar during the Asian trading session<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe two graphs that give us a reasonable inference are:\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile the rest of the world, especially the emerging market countries, are bearish on the dollar, the U.S. itself is bearish on the dollar, at least for the last 3 months!\n<\/p>\n

\n\tSo familiar with the bridge: A and B passed each other, and in their hearts said to each other, you are really stupid!\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWho the hell is stupid? Look no further than the results.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n   2<\/strong>, Wall Street's gain, should be the largest<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe most golden result was revealed by the Federal Reserve in the early hours of March 17th. Yellen's unexpected expectations of easing sent the dollar index down for the second day in a row, falling below the key line around 96. Wall Street, locking in gains on the exchange rate.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThat's not all.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn the resources and commodities market dominated by Wall Street, Wall Street has chopped another part of the gains. The capital that is long on the dollar is inevitably going to be short commodities and resources, and therefore, is also basically the losing side of the commodities and resources trade, look at the domestic black system in the first half of March's continuous forcing, we know that the commodity shorts have lost a lot of money in recent months.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn addition, since the entry into non-US currencies is definitely to invest in the country's capital markets, and this round of stock market rally in emerging markets is much higher than in developed countries, with the exception of China.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd so it is.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAccording to Merrill Lynch's Flow Show report, $3 billion flowed into emerging markets in the 2 weeks leading up to March 16th.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tStocks in Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have all seen unexpectedly strong rallies since bottoming out in mid-January, far outpacing the three major U.S. stock indexes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tHaving said that, it is not difficult to make a conclusion. This round of capital games, dollar capital, completely holding the nose of emerging markets, from the commodities as well as emerging market stock market rebound, they profit a lot. These profits, will be in June before, reflected in the U.S. corporate earnings, no wonder several members of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike in July, they are counting on this.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile emerging market countries chased the dollar, devaluing their currencies and making their assets cheaper, United States capital went in the opposite direction, gaining a double gain on exchange rates and assets. In other words, some capital in countries that were bullish on the dollar and bearish on their currencies and assets suffered a double loss.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n  3<\/strong>Thanks to the yuan holding out, U.S. capital's biggest wish is dashed<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tUnfortunately, however, dollar capital's biggest hope was to put on this show, in the yuan. But because the yuan unexpectedly held up against the dollar, this round of Qiankun big move of the heavy drama, for the time being, did not succeed.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIn fact, the dollar capital of this round of harvesting, due to the yuan did not play cards according to the rules, and the power is greatly reduced. Its logic, in previous issues of the political and economic vertical and horizontal talk, the author has talked about many times, excerpts are as follows.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \"<\/em>Why the yuan must be defeated. The reason is that the yuan has, now, become the biggest roadblock to the dollar's strategy of strength.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n <\/em>Great devaluation of the yuan, it seems, can indeed give China a trade advantage. However, the result of a major devaluation is bound to be a woeful global market outside the United States.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t      <\/em>With the help of the yuan devaluation, hit global asset prices, the United States will come with a global takeover. Argentina, Venezuela and small countries in Central Asia, that little meat, is not enough to fill the profit demand of ten trillion dollars level capital.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n <\/em>The U.S. needs a major global takeover to complete the transition from<\/em>8<\/em>A complete turnaround from the subprime mortgage crisis a year ago. Now, large U.S. companies hoarding dollar cash in overseas markets alone have more than<\/em>3<\/em>Trillions of dollars large, they all come with a cost and require the acquisition of bloodied chips.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n <\/em>With the takeover complete, the US will also put all the blame for the collapse of other countries' economies on the Yuan.<\/em>\"<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThis dry run by Wall Street Capital is a classic:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tSinging long and short on the dollar, guiding external capital to come to take over stocks, real estate and other U.S. high assets; emerging market countries, singing short and long, taking advantage of the exchange rate and asset prices double kill the bottom.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd the cooperation of the Federal Reserve, which is essential for the successful completion of this round of harvesting. And the Fed did give perfect cooperation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n   4<\/strong>The good attacker moves above the nine heavens.<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAt this point, Politics and Economics Talk believes that a conclusion can be established:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u773c\u4e0b\u8fd9\u8f6e\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u5185\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u8ddf\u98ce\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5bf9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6da8\u5f97\u8d8a\u66b4\u529b\u5c31\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u6536\u5272\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u4eca\u5e74\u5f00\u5c40\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u7cdf\u7cd5\u81f3\u6781\uff0c\u800c\u8be5\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5374\u6210\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u5df4\u897f\u80a1\u5e02Bovespa\u6307\u6570\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e0a\u6da814.1%\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5e76\u975e\u4e2a\u6848\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u56f0\u5883\u4e2d\u82e6\u82e6\u6323\u624e\u7684\u8bf8\u5982\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u5357\u975e\u7b49\u5176\u5b83\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4ea6\u4e0a\u6f14\u4e86\u540c\u6837\u5267\u60c5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u4e9b\u66fe\u9f13\u5439\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u8981\u5927\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u770b\u770b\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u8fd9\u8f6e\u4e7e\u5764\u5927\u632a\u79fb\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u914d\u5408\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u6084\u65e0\u58f0\u606f\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u597d\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c \u5584\u653b\u8005\u52a8\u4e8e\u4e5d\u5929\u4e4b\u4e0a\u201d\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u662f\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u6765\u4e5f\u5306\u5306\uff0c\u53bb\u4e5f\u5306\u5306\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u4f53\u6839\u57fa\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u9760\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5feb\uff0c\u9760\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u5dee\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u770b\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u8fd9\u8f6e\u53cd\u5f39\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u5c3e\u58f0\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n5<\/strong>\u3001\u8ba9\u6211\u597d\u597d\u54ac\u4f60\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u8981\u4e71\u52a8\u597d\u561b\uff01<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u770b\u6e05\u695a\u8fd8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u7528\u5462\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6709\u7528\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u53ef\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d44\u672c\u6545\u4f0e\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8fd9\u51e0\u5929\uff0c\u8c08\u53cb\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5546\u754c\u5927\u4f6c\uff0c\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u63a2\u6d4b\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c47\u7387\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5e95\u7ebf\uff0c\u8981\u5f04\u6e05\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u610f\u56fe\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/strong>     1<\/em>\u3001\u62ab\u9732\u6240\u8c13\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u56e0<\/em>A<\/em>\u80a1\u5411\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6c42\u6559\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u3002<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n 2<\/em>\u3001\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u7ba1\u7406\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21<\/em>800<\/em>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c<\/em>3<\/em>moon<\/em>22<\/em>date<\/em>\u5728\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u526f\u884c\u957f\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\u6c47\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u5c40\u957f\u6f58\u529f\u80dc\u4f1a\u9762\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u5c31\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u7b49\u8bae\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n 3<\/em>\u3001\u526f\u603b\u7406\u6c6a\u6d0b<\/em>23<\/em>\u65e5\u5e94\u7ea6\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u96c5\u5404\u5e03<\/em>-<\/em>\u5362\u901a\u8bdd\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u79f0\uff0c\u6c6a\u6d0b\u548c\u5362\u7ee7\u7eed\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u521b\u9020\u6761\u4ef6\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6709\u5e8f\u8f6c\u5411\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6c47\u7387\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t     
\n 4<\/em>\u3001\u4f20\u8a00<\/em>IMF<\/em>\u5e0c\u671b\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u5916\u6c47\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u900f\u9732\u66f4\u591a\u7ec6\u8282\uff08<\/em>IMF<\/em>\u540e\u6765\u5426\u8ba4\uff09\u3002<\/em>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5728\u5f80\u671f\u7684\u653f\u7ecf\u7eb5\u6a2a\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u591a\u6b21\u8c08\u5230\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u662f\u968f\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u800c\u6700\u8ba9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5bb3\u6015\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6218\u6597\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a3\u4e07\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5b50\u5f39\uff0c\u518d\u795e\u51fa\u9b3c\u6ca1\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u6ca1\u529e\u6cd5\u63a5\u62db\u4e86\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u624d\u7eb7\u7eb7\u8981\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6c47\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u201c\u66f4\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u201d\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8ba9\u6211\u597d\u597d\u54ac\u4f60\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u8981\u4e71\u52a8\u597d\u561b\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u771f\u662f\u6253\u5f97\u4e00\u624b\u597d\u7b97\u76d8\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u671f\u5f85\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u900f\u660e\u3001\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u201d\u6240\u8ff7\u60d1\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5584\u5b88\u8005\u85cf\u4e8e\u4e5d\u5730\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff01
\n
\n\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u8ba9\u5bf9\u624b\u65e0\u4ece\u7422\u78e8\uff01\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u51fa\u5176\u4e0d\u610f\u5730\u5347\uff0c\u4e5f\u51fa\u5176\u4e0d\u610f\u5730\u8d2c\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5e45\u5ea6\u9700\u8981\u53ef\u63a7\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Politics and Economics Talk Public Article\/Lei Sihai   [...]<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3579"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10665,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3579\/revisions\/10665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yzzks.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}