Victims of the South China Sea Arbitration Case are China's Middle Class
2023-07-07Why ten carriers don't scare the Chinese.
2023-07-07Global finance has suffered considerable turmoil since the UK's departure from the European Union.6moon27On Sunday, the yuan's mid-price fell sharply, once falling below the6.63level, a six-year low, and the onshore RMB fell cumulatively against the USD1.1%The offshore renminbi fell cumulatively against the U.S. dollar1.5%The
The yuan fell, the dollar yen continued to rise this is not a financial dark surge, but a very simple truth. The United Kingdom out of the European Union, as a major international event, its future direction is very uncertain, the credit rating has been further downgraded, for investors at this time to hurry up the hands of the hot potato out of the transfer into some stable currency is the conventional routine. U.S. dollar yen is the international political impact of less safe-haven currency, abide by the more you buy the more you rise, the more you sell the more you drop the law, Japan and the U.S. currency naturally appreciated, on the contrary, the exchange of the yuan appreciated U.S. dollar is equal to the devaluation.
Why is the dollar-yen an internationally recognized safe-haven currency, and why shouldn't its currency volatility be more unpredictable in these countries with well-developed market freedom? Instead, China, which has more control over its currency, has a lower credit rating? While China's lack of capital openness is one of the factors affecting its credit rating, it is the government's de facto control over its currency, which makes the currency exchange rate largely subject to domestic policy, that is the main reason for the low rating.
Being a credible power
After more than ten years of rapid development, China has truly become an economic power in the world's attention, however, we can see that in the2012-2013When the international image ranking of countries was made in 2007, China's international image was unsatisfactory and even far lower than that of Japan. From the statistics in the data, the countries with higher evaluation of China, excluding Pakistan, are all backward regions that need to rely on China's economic support, while Europe and the United States have a low evaluation of our country to8The lowest point in years. But why do Japan and Germany, also major economic powers, repeatedly rank high in terms of image when there is economic strife and competition in the world?
The recently opened South China Sea arbitration, China's isolation in the neighboring regions also reflects the existence of certain problems in the country, the root cause of which is related to China's monetary policy. First of all, we need to objectively recognize that China is the yuan exchange rate manipulator, the yuan exchange rate is largely controlled by the central bank. The government's control of the exchange rate can bring benefits to the country on the one hand, but at the same time also hurt the interests of neighboring countries. Almost everyone knows the rule that when a country's currency depreciates, it favors that country's exports. National sentiment aside objectively speaking, for years China has relied on the yuan's"managerial"Favorable conditions are created for the country's export industry, while employment is safeguarded. However, this practice is undoubtedly detrimental to others, as the global demand for commodities is limited, and when countries capture the market by creating a price advantage for commodities through the exchange rate, which increases the number of jobs in the country, it means that companies in other countries are faced with layoffs and a decline in profits. For the world, this is a speculative zero-sum game that will not bring any substantial growth to the world economy. China, as the world's second largest economy, should shoulder the international responsibility expected of a large country and actively participate in building the international order.
Being in the country may not feel the harm that China has done to other countries by manipulating the exchange rate, but the Chinese government cannot deny that it has engaged in exchange rate manipulation, which is a fact recognized by countries all over the world. This has led to China's image in the world not being particularly positive, resulting in many international conflicts against the country being easily provoked time and again. (It should be clarified, however, that in the last two years China has made concessions on the exchange rate of the renminbi and has made promises for currency reform on various occasions.)
Disadvantages of exchange rate manipulation
The sharp depreciation of the renminbi is also a factor in the currency's still unstable international credit rating. If we want to become an international safe-haven currency, we must first detach ourselves from the potential policy influence of the currency. In fact, our current forced currency manipulation, although in the short term to gain short-term benefits, but in the long run, its toxicity is also fierce.
Almost, all the problems existing in the Mainland at the moment can be attributed to the manipulation of the Renminbi, such as the continued low exchange rate of the Renminbi, which has resulted in expensive imports into China, but instead, domestic resources have been sold at a cheap price, blind exploitation in the early days, serious pollution of the air and water resources, poisonous land brought about by the chemical industry, as well as inflation, and so on. All this is attributed to the fact that due to the long-term reliance on price competitiveness, most mainland Chinese enterprises have no incentive to upgrade their technological content and have no determination to mine and develop scientifically. Once the export slump, the exchange rate is controlled, and Chinese enterprises have repeatedly formed a dependence on the long road of industrial transformation. In fact, China completed the accumulation of capital a few years ago, many enterprises already have the prerequisites for research and development of technology, however, long-term currency management is like a pair of mother's hands, will be held tightly in the arms of the child, the children are slow to learn to walk on their own, so that the country has repeatedly missed the best time for industrial transformation. In addition, currency manipulation is simply bad news for the ordinary bosses surnames, the government with a variety of policies to take the taxpayers' money to subsidize enterprises, although it is to foster a number of large and small companies, but widened the gap between rich and poor in society. And manipulation of the exchange rate brought about by the loss of price increases but to taxpayers and the people to bear the burden, rely on the sacrifice of the masses to maintain the operation of a large machine, in the country is also extremely inhumane.
What we see.
The forced manipulation of the RMB exchange rate at the expense of the people's interests has indeed contributed to the development of our country, but what needs to be seen is that the ideological approach of those in power, which puts the interests of the motherland above the interests of the masses, is gaining less and less support among the people. In the face of these phenomena, those in power obviously see the situation more clearly than we do, but it is very difficult to change these facts, and the resistance comes from the traditional cultural desire for achievement and comparison. Scientific development has been advocated by the State for many years, but the pollution of resources has become increasingly serious and has not stopped deteriorating. "I can't miss out on the good work of my predecessors."Many officials are blindly aligned with political achievements and will stop at nothing in order to produce results."There can be future messes, but at least my hands should be shining in this session."
The frantic pursuit of achievements in a short period of time by some rulers has caused some potential problems to slowly surface in recent years. There is a country before there is a family, and it is everyone's mission to safeguard the national interest and do their civic duty to realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese race. However, when the national interest is gradually separated from the interests of the masses, the people eventually become more and more frustrated."surpass the United Kingdom and the United States"That decades-old slogan is being realized day by day, and the national euphoria that accompanied the country's progress has recently turned into a lament.2024The fact that we are about to enter a high-income country in the next few years has prompted the whole nation to question whether the high income is the result of averaging out, and the ordinary people still have to bear the huge medical fees and sky-high housing prices which are getting more and more expensive every year, and the people can no longer tell whether the development of the country is good or bad for them.
There are problems that need to be faced.
It cannot be denied that the government is generally doing more good than harm by managing the RMB for the benefit of its people, and countries around the world are also manipulating their currencies, only to a lesser or greater extent. The marketization of the RMB will encounter some challenges, such as rising unemployment, exports suffering, speculation, etc. But it is not for nothing. However, it is not useless, the appropriate appreciation of the RMB, for China's industrial transformation is favorable. Currently, the ecological environment in mainland China has been severely damaged, which stems from the currency exchange rate causing the country's resources to be ruthlessly exploited at a cheap rate. Although this is a pull for the country's business and economic development, such development undoubtedly strengthens class conflicts, and it is more important for ordinary people to have an environment in which to live when they do not earn as much as entrepreneurs. The upward adjustment of the RMB with the liberalization of the market is conducive to Chinese enterprises to import the resources of other countries, and to a large extent, it can protect the ecological environment of the country, and the benefit of the common people is self-evident, which is also in line with the road of transformation of China. The free marketization of RMB can improve China's international image to a large extent, and promote the internationalization of RMB, in the increasingly severe international situation today, with RMB to open the U.S. encirclement is more significant.
It is foreseeable that currency liberalization will bring a lot of short-term disadvantages, but in ancient and modern times, there is no reform is no sacrifice, should face the problem we always have to face, we can not focus on the pursuit of national interests to the detriment of the people's interests, can not focus on the pursuit of their own interests to the detriment of the interests of other countries, the combination of domestic and foreign point of view, China, if you want to become a globally renowned big country, the pain of cutting the meat is unavoidable. If China wants to become a great global power, it is inevitable that it will have to cut its flesh.