Editor's note: Beijing time8moon9On Sunday morning, Japan's Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida urgently summoned the Chinese Ambassador to Japan, Mr. Cheng Yonghua, to protest against the entry of hundreds of Chinese vessels into the waters of the Diaoyu Islands. In the same east, South Korea's Park Geun-hye government has also sent the world's harshest counterattacks to China over the "Saad restriction" incident, saying that China is continuing to make the wrong words and deeds. (This article was published in8moon10(day)

exist21In the history of China's diplomacy in the century, it is very rare to exert such tough pressure on Japan and South Korea at the same time. At present, why does China dare to confront two Asian powers, Japan and South Korea, at the same time, and what is China's purpose in doing so? Does China really have such strength?

From the South China Sea to the East China Sea  
     

The "South China Sea Arbitration" incident that has only just subsided is a great inspiration to China. Although the Chinese side in the "South China Sea Arbitration" has indisputable sovereignty, but no matter in the Western public opinion or international politics are very passive. The importance of preemptive action is one of the most important points of knowledge that China has learned in the South China Sea. As long as we can find the right time to preemptively strike and grasp the wind direction, we can save China some unnecessary trouble.        

Long before the South China Sea ruling even came out, there was news that Japan was planning an East China Sea ruling. According to Japan's Kyodo7moon13On March 28, 2010, the LDP's committee on resource development in the East China Sea reported that(Yoshiaki Harada, Chairman)It has been largely decided that the Government will be asked to initiate arbitration proceedings before the Permanent Court of Arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in order to stop China's development of oil and gas fields in the East China Sea.        

China lost the first opportunity in the South China Sea, leading to a passive quagmire later. From this Diaoyu Islands China's proactive posture, China has received a lesson from the South China Sea arbitration. The Diaoyu Islands, led by some of the islands are China's inherent territory, but there are still disputes in international public opinion, the Japanese side wants to provoke the next arbitration, then China should rush to the Japanese side to formally embark on the recovery or stabilization of the disputed areas before the end of future problems.        

Taking advantage of the shift in public opinion around the world during the Olympics, China picked this point to slowly advance China's territorial sovereignty very appropriately. Moreover, once a major international event occurs, the domestic cohesion will be improved to a certain extent. China has experienced the South China Sea arbitration and the Olympic Games "shady"? Sun Yang, "drug", "wrong flag" and other news conducive to unity within the country, the national fighting spirit has never been higher, China has first completed the "foreign must first secure the internal" of the prerequisites. China has fulfilled the prerequisite of "securing the interior before the exterior".        

The U.S. election also sent a wind to China, the face of Trump's aggressive, Hillary's competitive advantage is not obvious. Not long ago just stabbed out "mailgate" event, for the same camp with Hillary Obama do not want to cause some new problems trapped in the partisan and embarrassing situation. The reason why the South China Sea can be so quickly pacified, and the U.S. election is inseparable, on the one hand, Obama wrongly estimated the tough diplomatic position of China, on the one hand, Obama did not do a good job in the South China Sea and China's face in the South China Sea tore the preparatory work, once the middle of any uncontrollable factors, directly affecting the Obama's smooth "retirement", but also let the The party was disgraced, resulting in Hillary lost the election. So at this moment, China, such as the East China Sea strong, Obama's government may also actively pressurize the military to maintain rationality and restraint, and this is a rare good thing for China.

South Korea's directive on South Korea's defense  
     

As China has repeatedly urged South Korea to properly deal with the issue of SAD, South Korea's stubbornness was ultimately met with the introduction of "restrictions on South Korea". Although the Chinese side did not admit that the "restriction on South Korea" and South Korea's Saad incident has a relationship, but to say that there is no connection between the two is obviously difficult to convince.        

One characteristic of the "Restriction of Korea Order" is that it can be recognized by most Asian countries. China's suppression of South Korea in the cultural sector will not provoke Japan and South Korea to join hands to fight against China, which is why China dares to pressure Japan and South Korea at the same time the two Asian powers. This time, the restriction of South Korea, in addition to China, the first country to applaud is Japan. In the same day of the introduction of the ban on South Korea, Japan's major Internet forums have aroused a warm response and discussion, Japanese netizens have praised the Chinese side. South Korea is a cultural industry, and cultural industries and Asian countries, "trade surplus" are very large, so in Asia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia and Thailand and other countries, the overall boycott of the Korean wave of emotions is very high.        

Don't look at South Korea and the United States close relations, economic development is generally stable and smooth, but South Korea's external contradictions are still many. A few years ago, Japan has because of the "Takeshima" controversy with China's current similar "restrictions on South Korea" hit South Korea, South Korea has suffered a great deal of "internal injuries" as a result. In the case of Japan, it can be found that as long as the news about the boycott of the Korean wave, South Korea in the international public opinion is almost no support, and in the cultural aspects of South Korea is basically no counter-sanctions, so with South Korea in conflict with the South Korea, restrictions on South Korea is the best method of sanctions.        

Not only is it the best way, it's the most powerful way. Roughly speaking, one percent of the profits of the external market of the Korean entertainment industry70From China, whose Korean restriction would pose a greater threat than any other country in the world.

But in fact, China's restriction on South Korea is also a practice of cutting its own wrists. Several Chinese Internet or media groups, led by Alibaba, have deeply cooperated and tied up with South Korean performing arts and media companies, hurting South Korea while hurting China itself. But pressure on South Korea is China's helpless move, it is well known that the people of China and South Korea have a deep friendship and rich emotional exchanges, the two leaders had a high degree of mutual trust. But when a friend makes a mistake, the rules should still be established.        

The Park Geun-hye government says China is putting the cart before the horse by accusing South Korea of deploying SAD. The Park Geun-hye government has been claiming that SAD is aimed at the North Korean nuclear issue, protecting its own national security, and has nothing to do with third parties. But in fact, from the military knowledge learned online, SAD's defense radius and functional role are beyond or not in line with the danger of coping with North Korea. It is understood that, with North Korea's current missile technology and firepower range, attacking some important areas of South Korea, the SAD system, even if the first warning found that it is very difficult to do a successful interception, and then take a step back, in case of war between North Korea and South Korea, the use of geopolitical advantages of North Korea can be the first time to destroy the SAD system deployed in South Korea, so South Korea through the deployment of the SAD to the defense of North Korea is very chicken ribs.        

South Korea's SAD hurts China's interests, and assuming that the United States launches an attack on China, SAD deployed in South Korea can provide strong help to the United States. South Korea believes that China should be too excited about the SAD incident, but when the Soviet Union deployed missiles to Cuba, the U.S. was even more excited, and both incidents were extremely damaging as one side deployed missiles to the other. The Cuban missile incident has created a decades-long feud between the U.S. and Cuba, and China is now giving South Korea room to talk, which is already benevolent enough. South Korea is enjoying a trade surplus with China while helping other powers, and this kind of earning money while stabbing is not acceptable to any country in the world. The SAD incident is likely to serve as a future case for other countries to refer to, if China's handling of the SAD incident is not proper, then other neighboring countries are likely to follow South Korea's example, while pretending to cooperate with China's economy, but at the same time to give orders to the U.S. to check and balance China's development.        

Therefore, no matter how deep China's feelings towards South Korea, this time China must bear the pain, establish the rules of Chinese diplomacy and set out its own bottom line, otherwise condone a South Korea SAD, then the surrounding may be hundreds of more SAD.

China's bottom line  
     

China has recently experienced two major international events, and the patriotic spirit of the whole nation is at an all-time high. In the face of South Korea, the people said that "there is no idol before national affairs", and in the face of the East China Sea, the people said that they would do anything to defend the sovereignty of the country. But even though China has the right time, place, and people, in modern times, we still need to talk about strength. Why does China have the courage to pressure the two most powerful countries in Asia at the same time? By virtue of China's overwhelming military superiority.        

In 2012, the Diaoyu Islands incident between China and Japan broke out, and friction between China and Japan became tense, with Japan frequently displaying weapons to demonstrate against China. However, four years later, in the face of hundreds of Chinese ships "black clouds", Japan has no way. And South Korea is even more in the face of China's strength, even do not have the courage to compare military power. As of2015In 2007, China's defense budget was already double that of Japan and South Korea combined.    
   

With China's emphasis on its navy, the Chinese navy has grown from2012annum2016China has experienced a qualitative leap in the past few years. Not to mention that China has an absolute advantage over Japan and South Korea in terms of strategic nuclear submarines, as well as an aircraft carrier battle group that is gradually forming its combat capability, together with theJ20Fifth-generation fighters and gradually improved early warning systems are already fully ahead of Japan. In terms of conventional surface ships, China's huge number of ships in service over the years to2016In 2008, the number of Chinese naval vessels has reached as many as300More than one ship, the total tonnage of active ships is second only to the United States.        

South Korea has few ships to show for it, Japan is relatively better, but its advantage over China has been slowly diminishing over the years and has even turned into a disadvantage. In the past decade, Japan has equipped new ships that meet the standards of a modernized navy.26ships, and South Korea is equipped with14ships, while China is equipped with56ships, far more than Japan and South Korea combined. Moreover, the degree of localization of Japan and South Korea's maritime military power is very low, almost most of the advanced military systems and missile warning rely on Western support and supply. On the contrary, China, the entire production line are independent design, in the "threat theory", China's "warships under the dumplings" is already China's more conservative production speed, if the country to raise to the state of war, China is very likely to happen more and more military phenomenon, and these are Japan and South Korea can not reach. Japan and South Korea are unable to reach.        

Japan's navy compared to the Chinese navy has lost its advantage, in the face of China's hundreds of ships sailing into the Diaoyu Islands, has been helpless. China's navy is no longer the state of the Sino-Japanese War, Japan's naval supremacy in Asia has long been removed, China through the high-speed development of the past few years, already has the largest naval military force in Asia. And assuming that China and Japan and South Korea at the same time a military conflict, China does not even have to deploy sea military forces, missiles plus aircraft out, Japan and South Korea's military forces will instantly suffer an irreparable blow, it is likely to be wiped out. One step back, even if China does not take advantage of the sea, only to launch the air force and navy, a steady stream of supplies and information support, can also ensure that China at the same time with Japan and South Korea to carry out to ensure the right to control the sea, including the absolute advantage of the right to control the air. China dares to pressure the two Asian powers at the same time, relying on the overwhelming military strength!

Testing Japan, U.S. and South Korea, making an image for Taiwan

    To sum up, China has an absolute advantage in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security without the intervention of the United States. China can take advantage of the shift in public opinion at the Olympics and the "good times" during the U.S. election period to pressure Japan and South Korea and prevent them from continuing to move against moral principles and militaristic hegemony. The Diaoyu Islands are China's inherent territory, and the deployment of SAD enhances the U.S. ability to invade and monitor China. China should firmly oppose the deployment of SAD and at the same time take back the Diaoyu Islands. But this will require a process that will take far longer than the Olympics or even the U.S. election.        

But if the Chinese side can not use this time to make some practical results, it is likely to have to face the new leader of the United States in office, a new wave of difficulties. According to Hillary's vote on Chinese affairs, the current U.S. presidential candidate Hillary's view of China's political views is very tough (Trump is unpredictable and unpredictable), after taking office for a period of time, in the East China Sea may set off a wave of big waves against China. Now that China is pressuring Japan and South Korea at the same time, U.S. indifference is likely to be the calm before the storm. But it's another matter to assume that China can do something in this "American vacuum", such as isolate the strategic relationship between the US, Japan and South Korea? Unlike the U.S., China doesn't need to bring Park Geun-hye into the fold in order to achieve the goal of instigation. China has much more at stake for South Korea, and South Korea, considering that the U.S. will not be able to provide firm support after giving up such a big stake, will "reassess" the U.S., just as the Park Geun-hye administration did with China after the North Korean nuclear test. And there is every indication that the Park administration tends to be impulsive. The military parade period, Park Geun-hye fell to the side of China, SAD Park Geun-hye but fell to the side of the United States, the two reversals did not go through careful consideration, as the leader did not leave South Korea how much space for détente. South Korea will be because of China's tough attitude, the United States is caught up in the election pressure indifferent and easily to all parties to compromise? It is very difficult to say. It is worth mentioning that Park should have left some room for dialog with China on SAD. Park needs to know that SAD does not protect South Korea, but instead protects North Korea. China has been committed to promoting the development of North Korea into a normal country for many years (in fact, North Korea has made great progress, more and more North Koreans are beginning to really understand the outside world, and the restrictions on speech are not as strict as before), and has been committed to peace on the Peninsula, which has a share of the efforts for South Korea. But if South Korea does not appreciate, insist on deploying Saad to damage China's feelings, then it is likely to push China to Kim Jong-un, South Korea will be more dangerous.        

China's continued pressure on South Korea at a special time, there is a certain probability that the Park Geun-hye government will be "disappointed" with the United States. At the same time, during this period, China through step by step to promote the recovery of sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands, to achieve substantial results, binding the new U.S. leaders in the next wave of China strategy "feet", then this time China has achieved a stage of victory.        

China's diplomacy is getting better and better as it moves from being a diplomatic country where "protest and condemnation" were the rhetoric to a mature and pragmatic country where less talk and more action are the norm. In doing so, China has stood up to international pressure in the hope of giving Taiwan a fighting chance. Korean Idol GroupsbigbangWelcomed with fire and brimstone in Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen is bent on pandering to Japan. China must build an image of itself as more powerful than Japan and South Korea combined, so that Taiwan will be impressed by China, in order to return to its lost ways. China wants to build a non-threatening environment for Taiwan, whether in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, so that Taiwan can have unimpeded access without having to be submissive. The Taiwan authorities should feel China's good intentions and should not question the image and capabilities of China everywhere.

appeal (to)  
     

From Japan to South Korea and Australia, the Chinese have seen governments that do not support China's position and a few extremists, but there are also many good and committed groups working for bilateral harmony. Park Geun-hye's deployment of Saddam Hussein was met with protests and resistance from the South Korean people, and in Japan there was a spontaneous civil society action to "set history straight" not long ago. In the current Rio Olympics, Australian athletes questioned Chinese athlete Sun Yang's "drug-taking", and many nationals unleashed indiscriminate insults against the Australian community, and also displayed irrational behavior of generalization in the face of disputes in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan, which is inappropriate as a national of a great power. This has greatly damaged the friendly exchanges between bilateral nationals. Chinese nationals should show their own style, they can express their own opinion or even question, for example, Horton, who "falsely accused" Sun Yang, but it is wrong to exclude the whole of Australia. Currently China is facing a particularly serious external crisis, from South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, almost China does not have a few close neighboring countries, this problem is worth thinking about. As a citizen of a big country, we should be more tolerant, or at least remain friendly and optimistic towards people's groups or political parties in other countries that are happy to develop friendly relations with China. Chinese nationals have14With a population of 100 million, and with this base, a little bit of strength can create great power! If Chinese nationals can be a little more tolerant and loving, a little more sensible and respectful, the country's image will achieve a huge improvement! Win cheers and applause from the world in future Olympic appearances and competitions; win more support in unpredictable international debates!