Source: Politics and Economics Talk Public No. Wen/Lui Si Hoi (1540-1647), Hong Kong actor and poet

Countries have expressed dismay at the recent long-short battle of the yuan against the dollar.

Rumors that the U.S. and China may have engaged in a secret deal at the G20 are swirling.

In this regard, China's Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao said on the 22nd that there is no secret agreement between China and the United States on exchange rate adjustment.

This is true.

Politics and economics talk, in recent months, after understanding the flow of global capital found that: the recent decline in the dollar, global commodities and stock market rebound, not because of what the G20 secret agreement, the dominant player behind the scenes, it is Wall Street. Wall Street capital under the cooperation of the Federal Reserve, staged an extremely classic Qiankun Da Nuo Yi.

     
 1A and B passed each other, and said to each other, "You're so stupid!

It's a classic battle of capital worthy of, well, Chinese institutions!

Fortunately, due to the yuan against the dollar, accidentally held up, so that China is temporarily free from the dollar capital copied once the back way, but also let Wall Street's harvest of this game, very limited.

A picture is worth a thousand words, so look at one first:

Here's a chart of how the dollar is trading in different trading time zones, as newly revealed by Bloomberg Financial News.

     
   It tells us2A fact:

1,After February 2016, traders were predominantly selling dollars during US trading hours. Almost all the selling against the dollar took place during US trading hours. It suggests that it was US capital that dominated the dollar sell-off.

2,During Asian trading hours, European trading hours, the dollar is strong. It means that non-US countries, are buying the dollar predominantly.

In fact, this is something that Politics and Economics Talk had talked about in its December 12, 2015 article, "Last night, the most bullish Chinese manufacturing was completed, and the big financial showdown heavyweights quietly came out":

Basically, the dollar index rises when it comes to Asian trading hours and falls when it comes to European and American trading hours. This shows that, on the eve of the Fed's rate hike, many people, including China, have been long the dollar. This is the logical consequence of the fact that many Chinese, more than Americans, are bullish on the U.S. economy.

     
   In fact, the dollar had already peaked in stages by then.

Figure 2:In the rectangle of the chart is the time-phased movement of the US dollar during the Asian trading session

The two graphs that give us a reasonable inference are:

While the rest of the world, especially the emerging market countries, are bearish on the dollar, the U.S. itself is bearish on the dollar, at least for the last 3 months!

So familiar with the bridge: A and B passed each other, and in their hearts said to each other, you are really stupid!

Who the hell is stupid? Look no further than the results.

     
   2, Wall Street's gain, should be the largest

The most golden result was revealed by the Federal Reserve in the early hours of March 17th. Yellen's unexpected expectations of easing sent the dollar index down for the second day in a row, falling below the key line around 96. Wall Street, locking in gains on the exchange rate.

That's not all.

In the resources and commodities market dominated by Wall Street, Wall Street has chopped another part of the gains. The capital that is long on the dollar is inevitably going to be short commodities and resources, and therefore, is also basically the losing side of the commodities and resources trade, look at the domestic black system in the first half of March's continuous forcing, we know that the commodity shorts have lost a lot of money in recent months.

In addition, since the entry into non-US currencies is definitely to invest in the country's capital markets, and this round of stock market rally in emerging markets is much higher than in developed countries, with the exception of China.

And so it is.

According to Merrill Lynch's Flow Show report, $3 billion flowed into emerging markets in the 2 weeks leading up to March 16th.

Stocks in Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have all seen unexpectedly strong rallies since bottoming out in mid-January, far outpacing the three major U.S. stock indexes.

Having said that, it is not difficult to make a conclusion. This round of capital games, dollar capital, completely holding the nose of emerging markets, from the commodities as well as emerging market stock market rebound, they profit a lot. These profits, will be in June before, reflected in the U.S. corporate earnings, no wonder several members of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike in July, they are counting on this.

While emerging market countries chased the dollar, devaluing their currencies and making their assets cheaper, United States capital went in the opposite direction, gaining a double gain on exchange rates and assets. In other words, some capital in countries that were bullish on the dollar and bearish on their currencies and assets suffered a double loss.

     
  3Thanks to the yuan holding out, U.S. capital's biggest wish is dashed

Unfortunately, however, dollar capital's biggest hope was to put on this show, in the yuan. But because the yuan unexpectedly held up against the dollar, this round of Qiankun big move of the heavy drama, for the time being, did not succeed.

In fact, the dollar capital of this round of harvesting, due to the yuan did not play cards according to the rules, and the power is greatly reduced. Its logic, in previous issues of the political and economic vertical and horizontal talk, the author has talked about many times, excerpts are as follows.

 "Why the yuan must be defeated. The reason is that the yuan has, now, become the biggest roadblock to the dollar's strategy of strength.

     
 Great devaluation of the yuan, it seems, can indeed give China a trade advantage. However, the result of a major devaluation is bound to be a woeful global market outside the United States.

      With the help of the yuan devaluation, hit global asset prices, the United States will come with a global takeover. Argentina, Venezuela and small countries in Central Asia, that little meat, is not enough to fill the profit demand of ten trillion dollars level capital.

     
 The U.S. needs a major global takeover to complete the transition from8A complete turnaround from the subprime mortgage crisis a year ago. Now, large U.S. companies hoarding dollar cash in overseas markets alone have more than3Trillions of dollars large, they all come with a cost and require the acquisition of bloodied chips.

     
 With the takeover complete, the US will also put all the blame for the collapse of other countries' economies on the Yuan."

This dry run by Wall Street Capital is a classic:

Singing long and short on the dollar, guiding external capital to come to take over stocks, real estate and other U.S. high assets; emerging market countries, singing short and long, taking advantage of the exchange rate and asset prices double kill the bottom.

And the cooperation of the Federal Reserve, which is essential for the successful completion of this round of harvesting. And the Fed did give perfect cooperation.

     
   4The good attacker moves above the nine heavens.

At this point, Politics and Economics Talk believes that a conclusion can be established:

眼下这轮包括中国股市在内的新兴市场的股市，以及大宗商品与原油的反弹，是由华尔街主导的，各国的国内资本，不过是跟风而已。对华尔街来说，涨得越暴力就越容易收割。

比如，巴西今年开局，经济表现糟糕至极，而该国股市却成为今年表现最佳的市场之一。以美元计巴西股市Bovespa指数今年迄今上涨14.1%，巴西并非个案，仍在困境中苦苦挣扎的诸如阿根廷、俄罗斯、南非等其它经济体，今年亦上演了同样剧情。

那些曾鼓吹人民币对美元要大贬值的人，不妨看看华尔街资本的这轮乾坤大挪移，在美联储的配合下，如此悄无声息。

好一个“ 善攻者动于九天之上”！

不过，既然是华尔街资本的主导行情，那么它必然会来也匆匆，去也匆匆。

因为这样没有实体根基的资本博弈，靠的就是快，靠的就是时间差。

因此，一旦我们也看清楚，这轮反弹就可能，到了尾声了。

     
5、让我好好咬你，你不要乱动好嘛！

那看清楚还有什么用呢？

有用！

可以防止下一次华尔街资本故伎重演。

这几天，谈友们应该注意到，美国政商界大佬，用各种方式，探测中国汇率与资本市场底线，要弄清中国的意图：

       1、披露所谓中国央行去年，因A股向美联储求教的电子邮件。

     
 2、全球最大的对冲基金（管理资产规模800亿美元），3moon22date在北京，与中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长潘功胜会面，双方就中国经济发展、国际收支平衡等议题进行了交流。

     
 3、副总理汪洋23日应约与美国财政部长雅各布-卢通话。美国财政部称，汪洋和卢继续讨论了中国创造条件以便有序转向由市场主导汇率的机制。

     
 4、传言IMF希望中国央行对外汇衍生品的交易，透露更多细节（IMF后来否认）。

在往期的政经纵横谈中，笔者多次谈到，针对人民币的汇率攻击，是随时可能再发起的。

而最让华尔街害怕的，是中国央行的战斗力，因为3万多亿美元的子弹，再神出鬼没的话，这就没办法接招了。所以，这才纷纷要人民币汇率波动，“更透明，更有可预见性”。

那意思就是：

让我好好咬你，你不要乱动好嘛！

真是打得一手好算盘！

期待不管是管理层，还是资本机构，都不要被所谓的“透明、可预见性”所迷惑。

善守者藏于九地之下！

要的就是让对手无从琢磨！表现在人民币对美元汇率上，就是出其不意地升，也出其不意地贬，当然，幅度需要可控！