Recently, there has been a very clear warming trend between China and North Korea, judging from known news movements.7moon11President Xi Jinping and DPRK Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and the DPRK on55anniversary to send each other congratulatory messages. This was immediately followed the next day by reports that North Korea had opened a Chinese passport- and visa-free"North Korea Half Day Tour", saying that the majority of Chinese tourists are welcome. But careful readers may have noticed the fact that in China's announcement of the nearly70A country that supports China's South China Sea but not North Korea, an old partner. Now the DPRK has released goodwill to the Chinese side and does not support China's position on the South China Sea, what is the deep meaning behind?

Why Alienate China      

 To discuss why the rebound is happening, it must first be clear why the"estrangement"The two countries have a natural affinity for each other. Back to the beginning, China and North Korea, once in the same Soviet camp, had a natural affinity for each other in the face of U.S. imperialism's suppression. But because of the divergence in positions between China and the Soviet Union, North Korea, a hardcore supporter of the USSR, chose to keep its distance from China, a cloudy relationship that lasted until the collapse of the USSR. North Korea's former leader Kim Il Sung appeared to be more restrained in his diplomacy with China, and even when there was a détente between the U.S. and China to the point of establishing diplomatic relations, North Korea didn't have a stalemate in its relations with China.        

Time came when the Soviet Union fully disintegrated, North Korea as a whole fell into a slump, and North Korea was trying to start cooperation with China when China chose to establish diplomatic relations with South Korea, a move that has become a knot in the hearts of China and North Korea to this day. To summarize, China and the United States to develop better relations, will only let North Korea into silence, and too close to South Korea will only offend North Korea. It was only when Comrade Jiang Zemin personally visited Pyongyang and offered political and material support to North Korea that the two sides gradually calmed down.        

The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the warming up of China and South Korea made the DPRK feel isolated and in crisis. Soon after Comrade Jiang Zemin's visit to the DPRK, although the DPRK apparently reunited with China, it took the liberty of making small moves. In the early 1990s, the U.S. monitored the DPRK's suspected development of nuclear weapons on the basis of satellite data, and the DPRK's nuclear issue has continued to this day.        

The North Korean nuclear issue is a topic that has always plagued China, and by the time Kim Jong-un came to power, North Korea seemed to have become even more uncontrollable. That's when China began to decide to slowly abandon North Korea in favor of further proximity to South Korea, which led to South Korean leader Park Geun-hye's two years of grace in China. Park resisted world pressure to come to China to participate in the military parade at a time when relations between China and South Korea were at their peak in history, and when China and North Korea were just one step away from a showdown.

How Park Geun-hye fell from pro-China to Saad        

Successive upturns in China-South Korea relations are the cause of all China-North Korea relations dropping to freezing point, somewhat similar to the downward adjustment of the friendship quota between China and the United States when the United States sells arms to Taiwan. South Korean President Park Geun-hye showed cordiality and friendship to China in her early days in office, and China was in desperate need of an influential friend like South Korea in the Asian region at that time.      

 South Korean President Park Geun-hye did make a lot of efforts for China-South Korea relations, so at that time China was full of positive reports on Park Geun-hye, in South Korea's domestic prejudices and perceptions of China have been corrected by leaps and bounds. However, a lot of Chinese public opinion interpreted Park Geun-hye simply as a person who favored China's prospects and development trends before befriending her.
       

For a newly appointed leader, Park is desperate to make something historic, and this"track record"It is inter-Korean diplomacy. With China's help, a face-to-face conversation between North Korea's No. 2 leader and South Korea's top brass was realized. At one time, Park Geun-hye's height rose to a peak value in South Korea. But the next inter-Korean relations did not happen again substantial progress, but instead missile tests, inter-Korean bilateral friction more and more frequent.        

In the inter-Korean stalemate, China's mediation did not play a substantial role, leading Park to reassess China's role in the DPRK, and the results of this assessment were clearly not very optimistic. South Korea then realized that it would be better to hope for China and Kim Jong-un than to actually deploy missiles; in addition, the political pressure on the United States to befriend China was enormous, and finally Park Geun-hye chose to turn back.—Deployment of the SAD missile defense system.

China and North Korea warming up lately?        

China is very disappointed with Kim Jong-un's performance in the international arena, on the one hand North Korea's"headstrong"was the trigger for the parting of ways between China and South Korea; on the other hand, Kim Jong-un's delusional attempts to evade the Six-Party Talks, bypassing China and seeking talks directly with the United States, the7moon6North Korea offered the U.S. a commitment to denuclearize the peninsula on Sunday.        

While Kim Jong-un held great sincerity but did not get the U.S. squarely, on the same day, the U.S. Department of State released the "Report on Human Rights Violations and Censorship in North Korea," announcing sanctions, including Kim Jong-un's11individuals and entities, which infuriated the Kim Jong-un regime, which decided to cut off the last channel of dialog with the United States and deal with it under the wartime approach (7moon12(Sun). It has to be said that Kim Jong-un's diplomacy is slightly rash.        

Having failed to deal with the United States, Kim Jong-un has turned and decided to defect to China once again. It may take some time for China-North Korea relations to warm up, if China does not have an urgent need to do so. But as we all know, the South China Sea arbitration has put China on the cusp, and in order to ensure peace and stability in the region, China has deployed most of its troops in the South China Sea area. At the same time, the United States and South Korea in South Korea, North Korea deployed SAD missile (U.S. chain of command) system, if North Korea did not restrain in time, and South Korea in the South China Sea at the critical moment of friction escalation, then the United States is just in the heart of the United States, that is, China needs to separate the troops to stabilize the Peninsula and distracted by the situation in the South China Sea, but also exposed the dilemma of the Chinese side of the military power shortage.        

China is very concerned and caring about the Korean Peninsula, especially after the United States announced sanctions against Kim Jong-un and the deployment of missile systems in South Korea, it is hard to guarantee what the young politician will do. Since North Korea has released friendly signals to China at a critical moment, China has responded very positively, which is conducive to the stability of the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea doesn't support China's South China Sea situation?        

A closer look reveals that in China's published nearly70Missing from the list of countries supporting China's position on the South China Sea is this fellow socialist partner, North Korea. North Korea did not support China's position on the South China Sea until12Neither day took a position on China's South China Sea stance, as right after the7moon10Before No. 1, North Korea was still actively working for North Korea-U.S. diplomacy. After Kim Il Sung, North Korea's diplomacy became more and more"dealing with concrete issues"The    

   Also Beijing has not taken the initiative to ask North Korea's position on the South China Sea, and China-North Korea relations have been stagnant since Park's participation in the parade.      

 So, to start another topic, is North Korea really so important to China? The geopolitical and strategic significance of North Korea has been popularized online, so I won't mention it here. First of all, the North Korean regime headed by Kim Jong-un will be very vulnerable once it loses China's support. If this group collapses, it will be a very heavy blow to China. There is no doubt that with the fall of Kim Jong-un's regime, the worldview of the North Korean people will be quickly refreshed in a short period of time, which is very scary for China, why is that so?
     

 In North Korea today, many North Korean citizens believe that the Western world is in dire straits and that China is the most developed country in the world. This worldview has been inculcated by the Kims for so many years that even when Sino-North Korean relations have reached a crisis point where they are close to being torn apart, there are still very few negative reports about China in North Korea. The Kims are embarrassed that they have kidnapped China and themselves from the beginning of the regime. If the truth about Kim Jong-un is revealed, no matter what kind of real image the Chinese side actually has, at least the North Korean people will think that the Chinese side and Kim Jong-un are"ex-spouse"Why else would China be propagandized all the time? Then when the entire North Korean people start to reject China, how China-North Korea relations will continue this is a very tough question.    

    The above assumptions are still based on the case of peaceful regime change in North Korea, then join the war in North Korea, North Korean residents should go where to take refuge? From the geographic point of view, either choose South Korea or China, and North Korea's 38th parallel dense minefields, North Korean residents to avoid the direction of South Korea is undoubtedly equal to send death. Then in the end their only choice is China, how does China deal with this group of refugees? China itself a14A country of 100 million people is really capable ofCan you afford this immigration?